The Greens say a surge in young people moving overseas since 2023 will cost the country $76 billion in GDP, $40 billion in lost earnings and $6 billion in foregone net tax over the next four decades.<\/p>\n
The party commissioned Victor Consulting – run by Clint Smith, who has previously worked for the Labour and Green parties – to look at the country’s financial losses as a result of more young people moving overseas.<\/p>\n
The Greens said the findings showed the need for government investment in job creation to keep young people in New Zealand.<\/p>\n
Victor Consulting used official sources to estimate lost public investment, net tax revenue, earnings from work, and GDP.<\/p>\n
The study found 77,500 New Zealanders aged 18-30 left the country “long term” between 2023 and 2025, which is 60 percent more than the 2016-2019 average of about 16,000 a year.<\/p>\n
It said $29 billion of public spending on health and education had gone into this group before they left, and $12 billion of that would be lost for good with those who do not return. (The paper said Treasury observed 43 percent of young people who leave, never return).<\/p>\n
The research said the government would lose $4 billion in tax over their working lives: $18 billion in net tax, partly offset by $14 billion of Superannuation and health costs avoided.<\/p>\n
It said New Zealand would forego $104 billion in earnings from work and $196 billion of GDP over the next four decades.<\/p>\n
“Compared to pre-Covid levels of emigration, this represents a loss of $6 billion in lost public investment and net tax, $40 billion in earning, and $76 billion in GDP.”<\/p>\n
Green co-leader Chl\u00f6e Swarbrick said young people were following the jobs.<\/p>\n
“It’s normal for a number of young people to want to go on their OE. But what we’ve seen in the last three years is not normal,” she said.<\/p>\n
“We do not need to wave goodbye to young people who don’t actually want to leave this country. We can have a sensible Government that invests in improving lives, lowering the cost of living, stimulating employment and economic resilience.”<\/p>\n