{"id":648595,"date":"2026-11-02T09:10:27","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T09:10:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/648595\/"},"modified":"2026-11-02T09:10:27","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T09:10:27","slug":"stock-market-outlook-this-week-tech-fed-fundstrat-direct-team","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/648595\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock market outlook this week: Tech, Fed \u2013 Fundstrat Direct Team"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tech continued to lead stocks down last week, as it had all month. Of the 11 sectors, all but information technology and communications services were up last week \u2013 the latter two were down 1.8% and 8.5%, respectively. Those are also the only two sectors that closed the month down.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee sees the long-term thesis for the AI trade as intact, and the main macroeconomic event this week supports a near-term constructive view on tech for him as well. We\u2019re speaking here of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that ended on Wednesday afternoon.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The FOMC rates kept steady as most expected, nudging more attention toward the post-meeting press conference. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh once again reiterated the central bank\u2019s commitment to achieving 2% inflation \u2013 and specifically not just \u201csome inflation target somewhere in the twos\u201d like 2.1%. Yet there was a less hawkish (or, using a different semantic approach, more dovish) angle to his remarks. For example, though he stressed that it was too soon to reach a \u201cfirm conclusion,\u201d he spoke of being \u201cencouraged by the progress we\u2019ve made in a short period of time\u201d on the Fed\u2019s inflation mandate, and he mentioned the committee\u2019s view that actions taken thus far \u201care starting to work some.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee highlighted Warsh\u2019s response to a question about the possibility that AI-driven demand growth was adding to inflation: \u201cIs the economy running too hot? [\u2026] That isn\u2019t the judgment of most of my colleagues. My judgment is we\u2019ve seen an improvement in productivity.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

The recent weeks of tech declines have dragged the broader indices lower, making it feel like this might be a bear market. But is it?<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a question that was put to Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton during our weekly research huddle. Here\u2019s his response: \u201cIs this a bear market? The key takeaway for me is that the stock market honestly is in much better shape than what many expect and how it has felt recently. The broader market has really begun to rally, and I think that is sort of the key. In the last month you\u2019ve seen tremendous gains out of almost every sector.\u201d<\/p>\n

One remaining source of uncertainty will likely be resolved next week, as the midterm elections decide which party controls the two chambers of Congress. Yet historical precedent suggests that while control of Congress certainly matters for the U.S. and the rest of the world in many ways, matters less for investors. \u201cWe looked at the stats since 1950 regarding midterm elections, and in 19 of 19 cases markets were higher by an average of 15% six months after the midterms.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Tech<\/a><\/p>\n

Chart of the Week<\/p>\n

\"Tech<\/a><\/p>\n

It could be argued that markets saw last week\u2019s FOMC meeting as less hawkish or more dovish. Two-year yields, generally seen as the market\u2019s view of where Fed policy is headed, retreated from their weekly highs on Wednesday around 4.78% to about 4.59% at Friday close. Also supporting this argument are a concurrent retreat in the 10-year yield and the MOVE Index (a measure of bond-market volatility), as seen in our Chart of the Week.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Recent \u26a1 FlashInsights<\/p>\n


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Fundstrat Direct Video: Weekly Highlight<\/p>\n

\"Tech<\/a><\/p>\n

Key incoming data <\/p>\n

10\/26 8:30 AM ET: Sep Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame<\/p>\n

10\/26 10:30 AM ET: Oct Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey Tame <\/p>\n

10\/27 8:30 AM ET: Sep P Durable Goods Orders Tame<\/p>\n

10\/27 9:00 AM ET: Aug S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA Tame<\/p>\n

10\/27 10:00 AM ET: Sep New Home Sales Tame<\/p>\n

10\/27 10:00 AM ET: Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Tame<\/p>\n

10\/27 10:00 AM ET: Oct Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame<\/p>\n

10\/28 2:00 PM ET: Oct FOMC Decision Dovish<\/p>\n

10\/29 8:30 AM ET: 3Q A GDP Tame<\/p>\n

10\/29 8:30 AM ET: Sep PCE Deflator Tame<\/p>\n

10\/30 8:30 AM ET: 3Q Employment Cost Index Tame<\/p>\n

11\/2 Mon 9:45 AM ET: Oct F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

11\/2 Mon 10:00 AM ET: Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

11\/3 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Sep JOLTS Job Openings\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\n

11\/3 Tue 10:00 AM ET: Sep F Durable Goods Orders MoM\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

11\/3 Tue: US Midterm Election<\/p>\n

11\/4 Wed 8:30 AM ET: Sep Trade Balance\u00a0<\/p>\n

11\/4 Wed 9:45 AM ET: Oct F S&P Global Services PMI\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

11\/4 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Oct ISM Services PMI\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\n

11\/5 Thu 8:30 AM ET: 3Q P Nonfarm Productivity QoQ\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

11\/5 Thu 8:30 AM ET: 3Q P Unit Labor Costs\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

11\/6 Fri 8:30 AM ET: Oct Non-farm Payrolls\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\n

11\/6 Fri 10:00 AM ET: Nov P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp<\/p>\n

\"Tech<\/a><\/p>\n

Stock List Performance<\/p>\n

\"Tech<\/a><\/p>\n

In the News <\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/a><\/p>\n

Bitcoin falls below $82,000 as investors retreat from risk assets<\/p>\n

Oct 22, 2026<\/p>\n

\"logo <\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/a><\/p>\n

Dow Is Powered Higher by an Everything Rally<\/p>\n

Oct 19, 2026<\/p>\n

\"logo <\/p>\n

\"Why<\/a><\/p>\n

Why Micron stock\u2019s drop is triggering \u2018buy the dip\u2019 calls<\/p>\n

Oct 15, 2026<\/p>\n

\"logo <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Tech continued to lead stocks down last week, as it had all month. Of the 11 sectors, all…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":648596,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-648595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/648595","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=648595"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/648595\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/648596"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=648595"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=648595"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=648595"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}