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Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team<\/a> and is published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.<\/p>\n Credit ratings agency Fitch has revised Poland\u2019s outlook to negative in its latest report, citing concern over \u201cdeteriorating public finances\u201d and growing \u201cpolitical polarisation\u201d.<\/p>\n The decision prompted Poland\u2019s finance minister to blame the president \u2013 who is aligned with the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party \u2013 for the situation. However, a presidential advisor and PiS figures accused the government of trying to shift the blame for its poor management of public finances.<\/p>\n \ud83d\udea8\ud83d\udea8\ud83d\udea8Fitch zmienia perspektyw\u0119 Polski na negatywn\u0105. \ud83d\udcc9 Rz\u0105d rozszczelni\u0142 system podatkowy i nie panuje nad finansami publicznymi. Deficyt ro\u015bnie szybciej ni\u017c w innych krajach regionu, a d\u0142ug coraz wi\u0119kszy i dro\u017cszy! https:\/\/t.co\/chX0SZhcVh<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Piotr Nowak (@PiotrNowak_PL) September 6, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n On Friday afternoon, Fitch announced<\/a> that it was maintaining Poland\u2019s credit rating at A- but was changing the country\u2019s outlook \u2013 which indicates the likely future direction of the rating \u2013 from stable to negative. It is the first time since Poland rose to A- level in 2007 that its outlook has been negative.<\/p>\n The agency pointed to Poland\u2019s \u201cdeteriorating public finances\u201d as a key factor in its decision. It forecasts that this year\u2019s government deficit will hit 6.9% of GDP, up from 6.6% in 2024, 5.3% in 2023 and just 1.7% in 2021.<\/p>\n That has been driven by \u201csignificant rises in public wages, pensions, social programmes, and debt servicing costs\u201d, noted Fitch, as well as a rapidly rising defence budget<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n The agency also cited the \u201cincreased political challenges\u201d Poland faces in bringing its public finances under control, pointing in particular to the election this year of opposition-aligned President Karol Nawrocki, who took office in early August<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThe start of President Karol Nawrocki\u2019s term highlights likely challenges for the coalition government to implement policy,\u201d wrote Fitch, pointing to the fact that Nawrocki has already vetoed a number of government bills<\/a> and pledged to oppose proposed tax increases.<\/p>\n \u201cIn an environment of high political polarisation\u2026the influence of domestic political considerations on policy choices is likely to increase ahead of the next parliamentary elections, due by October 2027,\u201d added the agency.<\/p>\n \u201cThis could reduce the room to implement politically challenging measures before 2028, including those supporting fiscal consolidation.\u201d<\/p>\n At a meeting between the government and new president, @NawrockiKn<\/a> criticised @donaldtusk<\/a>‘s administration for a record budget deficit.<\/p>\n Tusk, meanwhile, said his government “has found ways” to circumvent Nawrocki’s veto of a law on building wind farms https:\/\/t.co\/gSSiCnBJYP<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Notes from Poland \ud83c\uddf5\ud83c\uddf1 (@notesfrompoland) August 27, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n In a response, Poland\u2019s finance minister, Andrzej Doma\u0144ski, wrote on social media that Fitch\u2019s \u201cdecision is a consequence of, among other things, President Nawrocki\u2019s blocking of key legislation, which limits the scope for strengthening the economy\u2019s foundations and necessary fiscal consolidation\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cOur government has rebuilt economic growth, unemployment remains low, and inflation is falling the fastest in Europe,\u201d added Doma\u0144ski.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are acting to combine stable finances with investments and necessary security expenditures. Nevertheless, this is a warning signal that everyone \u2013 including the President and his advisors \u2013 should take note of.\u201d<\/p>\n Agencja Fitch potwierdzi\u0142a rating Polski na poziomie A-, obni\u017caj\u0105c jednak jego perspektyw\u0119. Decyzja to konsekwencja https:\/\/t.co\/Ad2dByW8tr<\/a>. blokowania przez Prezydenta Nawrockiego kluczowych ustaw, co ogranicza przestrze\u0144 do wzmocnienia fundament\u00f3w gospodarki i niezb\u0119dnej\u2026<\/p>\n \u2014 Andrzej Doma\u0144ski (@Domanski_Andrz) September 5, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n However, Leszek Skiba, an economic advisor to Nawrocki and former deputy finance minister under PiS, hit back at Doma\u0144ski, saying that Nawrocki\u2019s power to veto bills could only have a limited effect on the government budget.<\/p>\n \u201cThe agency [Fitch] assessed a deficit of 272 billion zloty, growing debt, a declared deficit of 6.5% of GDP \u2013 and not 16 billion zloty from tax bills that can be vetoed,\u201d wrote Skiba. \u201cHow does 16 billion compare to 272 billion?\u201d<\/p>\n Meanwhile, former PiS Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, noted that \u201csuch [ratings] decisions are not made overnight \u2013 they are the result of problems in public finances that have been growing for many months\u201d.<\/p>\n Morawicki argued that the main catalyst for the negative outlook was the government\u2019s recently published draft budget for 2026<\/a>, which he said had been a \u201cnegative surprise for markets\u201d.<\/p>\n Praca milion\u00f3w Polek i Polak\u00f3w idzie na marne. \u2014 Mateusz Morawiecki (@MorawieckiM) September 6, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n S\u0142awomir Dudek, president of the Institute of Public Finance, a think tank, noted that Fitch had issued its decision despite Poland recently recording \u201csolid growth\u201d<\/a> and becoming the world\u2019s 20th largest economy, with its GDP set to surpass the $1 trillion mark.<\/p>\n Dudek said that the negative outlook is the result of \u201cthe populism trap we fell into in 2015\u201d, the year that the former PiS government came to power and began to boost public spending.<\/p>\n While \u201cPIS that set the debt train in motion, the current government has added fuel\u201d, argued Dudek. \u201cAs a result, we have Swedish-level [high public] spending and a course towards Irish-level [low] taxes. This is an unsustainable model.\u201d<\/p>\n Mimo solidnego wzrostu, mimo faktu, \u017ce Polska sta\u0142a si\u0119 20 gospodark\u0105 \u015bwiata, agencja Fitch obni\u017cy\u0142a perspektyw\u0119 ratingu dla Polski ze stabilnej na negatywn\u0105. To jest konsekwencja wysokiego deficytu i bardzo szybkiego tempa wzrostu d\u0142ugu. Rozp\u0119dzony poci\u0105g d\u0142ugu to rezultat\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/0ViBBNEwhl<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 S\u0142awomir Dudek (@DudSlaw) September 5, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Main image credit: Gideon Benari\/Flickr<\/a> (under CC BY 2.0<\/a>)<\/p>\n Daniel Tilles is editor-in-chief of\u00a0Notes from Poland. He has written on Polish affairs for a wide range of publications, including\u00a0Foreign Policy,\u00a0POLITICO Europe,\u00a0EUobserver\u00a0and\u00a0Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t\t
Wielu urz\u0119dnik\u00f3w pa\u0144stwowych i nasza ekipa polityczna przez 8 lat walczy\u0142o o stabilne finanse publiczne. W czasie pandemii, europejskiego kryzysu energetycznego i wojny za wschodni\u0105 granic\u0105 potrafili\u015bmy zagwarantowa\u0107 stabilno\u015b\u0107\u2026<\/p>\n
Notes from Poland is run by a small editorial team<\/a> and published by an independent, non-profit foundation that is funded through donations from our readers. We cannot do what we do without your support.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/6s83J95K_400x400.jpg\")
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