{"id":71095,"date":"2025-10-11T01:23:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-11T01:23:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/71095\/"},"modified":"2025-10-11T01:23:11","modified_gmt":"2025-10-11T01:23:11","slug":"economic-risks-mount-in-switzerland-on-tariff-turbulence-articles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/71095\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic risks mount in Switzerland on tariff turbulence | articles"},"content":{"rendered":"

US tariffs are a significant risk for the Swiss economy as its exposure to the US market is big, amounting to 4% of GDP. Therefore, the impact of tariffs will be much bigger than for the European Union, where direct exposure to the US amounts to 1.9% of GDP.<\/p>\n

The average effective tariff rate for exports from Switzerland to the US has surged from 0.6% in December 2024 to 25.3%, a 24.7 percentage point increase. Based on the methodology described here<\/a>, we estimate a cumulative direct impact of the increase of US tariffs on Swiss GDP of about 0.86% in the first two years, also taking into account recent Swiss franc appreciation. If we take out the impact of the Swiss franc appreciation, the impact would be 0.75% of GDP over the next two years. Longer-term projections suggest a 2.3% GDP hit, underscoring the persistent drag on growth.<\/p>\n

But the reality could be even worse if the pharmaceutical sector were hit with higher customs duties. The chemical and pharmaceutical sector, which accounts for 7-8% of Swiss GDP, has been the main driver of export growth in recent decades. With 60% of Swiss pharma exports destined for the US, the sector is disproportionately exposed to American trade policy shifts. In a worst-case scenario, where 100% tariffs were applied to pharma products, the effective tariff rate for Switzerland would climb to 47%. This would mean an increase of 46.7 percentage points! According to our estimates, this would hit Swiss GDP by 1.7% in the first two years and a 4.13% decline over the longer term. Such a shock could tip Switzerland into recession territory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"US tariffs are a significant risk for the Swiss economy as its exposure to the US market is…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":71096,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[138,219,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-71095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71095"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71095\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71096"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}