{"id":74000,"date":"2025-10-12T15:06:07","date_gmt":"2025-10-12T15:06:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/74000\/"},"modified":"2025-10-12T15:06:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-12T15:06:07","slug":"chinas-return-to-oilseed-markets-may-be-make-or-break-for-26-acreage-decisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/74000\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s return to oilseed markets may be make-or-break for \u201926 acreage decisions"},"content":{"rendered":"

This story was first published on RealAgriculture.com on Oct. 9, 2025.<\/a><\/p>\n

With 2026 seeding decisions on many producers\u2019 minds, IntelliFarm\u2019s Brian Voth offered a sobering, clear-eyed take on commodity risk right now: China\u2019s nearly 76 per cent tariff on Canadian canola<\/a> is a make-or-break factor for acreage decisions. For soybeans, the lack of U.S. buying by China weighs heavily on farmers\u2019 minds south of the border, too.<\/p>\n

The question of whether or not to seed canola or beans in 2026 \u2014 or how much \u2014 is not a simple decision facing farmers.<\/p>\n

Read more:<\/p>\n

If China does not resume significant canola purchases, Voth says, \u201cwe\u2019re going to have a lot of canola sitting around\u201d \u2014 and no other buyer can easily absorb the volume historically shipped to China.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not all bad news, as Australia\u2019s supply potential is limited and Canadian canola remains among the few sources capable of stepping in if trade resumes, but that\u2019s a big question mark on demand.<\/p>\n

Still, Voth says that on a per-acre basis, canola remains one of Western Canada\u2019s more reliable returns: \u201con average \u2026 it\u2019s still one of the most consistently profitable crops that gets grown.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, he cautioned that acreage and output appear capped at 21 to 23 million acres without breakthrough genetic yield gains.<\/p>\n

On the soybean front, Voth pointed to a repeat of the 2018 scenario, where South American growers dominated exports and the U.S. became a net seller.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt would not surprise me one bit that all of a sudden U.S. soybeans are going to end up \u2026 like they did in 2018,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, corn remains an outlier. Despite estimates of record acreage and yields, demand has held firm. Voth questions how long such optimism is sustainable, noting how unpredictable weather or disease could tip final production outcomes sharply.<\/p>\n

Many cropping decisions for \u201926, and maybe the next several years, will come down to political developments rather than agronomic fundamentals.<\/p>\n

\u201cNormal\u201d supply and demand dynamics don\u2019t really exist right now, and prices are impacted by the political whim of the day, it seems, Voth says.<\/p>\n

Listen to RealAg on the Weekend, Saturdays at 4 p.m. and Sundays at 1 p.m. on 650 CKOM and 980 CJME.<\/a><\/p>\n

Read more:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This story was first published on RealAgriculture.com on Oct. 9, 2025. With 2026 seeding decisions on many producers\u2019…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":74001,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[138,220,111,139,69],"class_list":["post-74000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-business","tag-markets","tag-new-zealand","tag-newzealand","tag-nz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74000","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74000"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74000\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/74001"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}