![\"Aat](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/1760408177_437_lg-webp.webp\")
\n <\/p>\n \n <\/p>\n
If the new tariffs take effect on November 1, Aat outlined three major consequences:<\/p>\n
\n\tGlobal trade slowdown \u2013 The World Trade Organisation (WTO)\u2019s 2025 trade growth forecast of 2.4% could fall to 1.5\u20131.9%.
\n\tUS economic hit \u2013 US GDP could drop from 1.8% to between 1.0\u20131.3%, as higher input costs push inflation and curb consumer spending.
\n\tChina slowdown \u2013 China\u2019s GDP could shrink by 0.5\u20131%, with exports to the US potentially falling from US$435 billion in 2024 to around US$200 billion \u2014 a 50\u201375% plunge.
<\/p>\n
For Thailand, the impact could be severe. The trade deficit with China could surge from 1.6 trillion baht in 2024 to nearly 2 trillion baht if Chinese exports to Thailand rise 30% as Beijing redirects shipments.<\/p>\n
During the first eight months of 2025, Thailand\u2019s deficit with China already reached 1.37 trillion baht and may hit 1.7 trillion baht by year-end.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf Chinese goods are shut out of the US, China will flood regional markets. This could hurt Thai manufacturers directly,\u201d Aat said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile Thailand\u2019s exports grew by 13% in the first eight months and could expand by more than 5% this year, next year will be difficult due to the US\u2019s 100% tariff on Chinese goods and domestic political uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n
Some Thai industries may benefit from the shift. Thai exports that could replace Chinese goods in the US market include automobiles, electronics, and processed foods.<\/p>\n
However, sectors that rely on Chinese imports for re-export \u2014 such as chemicals, plastics, electronic components, rubber, and machinery parts \u2014 could see weaker demand.<\/p>\n
\u201cThailand must adapt quickly to this new trade war,\u201d Aat concluded. \u201cEven if Thailand is not directly targeted, the structural impact on the global trading system will be felt here. We must diversify export markets and enhance competitiveness to stay ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n
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