CME\u2019s FedWatch tool<\/a>, Wall Street is certain that some kind of cut is coming when the central bank announces its policy decision on Sept. 17. The only question is whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Right now, a 92% probability of a quarter-point cut is priced in.<\/p>\nPerhaps the only thing that could put a rate cut in doubt is a surprise spike in inflation. The effect of President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs on inflation has been more muted that anticipated, but investors will get crucial updates.<\/p>\n
On Wednesday, the producer price index for August will come out, and economists expect a 0.3% month increase, cooling from the 0.9% surge in July.<\/p>\n
On Thursday, the consumer price index is due, and Wall Street sees a 0.3% gain, accelerating from the 0.2% pace a month earlier. On an annual basis, the CPI is also seen heating up, with August expected to see a yearly pace of 2.9%, up from 2.7% in July. <\/p>\n
But inflation in core consumer prices should remain steady at a monthly rate of 0.3% and an annual rate of 3.1%. Still, both the headline CPI and core CPI would continue to be above the Fed\u2019s 2% target.<\/p>\n
On Tuesday, the Labor Department will publish preliminary benchmark revisions to its establishment survey data for 2025. With revisions earlier this year mostly trimming prior readings, more downward revisions could be due.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook is fighting Trump\u2019s attempt to fire her, and a judge hearing the case could issue a ruling in the coming week, clarifying whether she will be able to participate in the FOMC meeting.<\/p>\n
In addition, the Senate could vote on Trump\u2019s nomination of White House economic adviser Stephen Miran to the Fed\u2019s board of governors, allowing him to take part in the meeting.\n<\/p>\n
Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26\u201327, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Stock futures gained momentum on Sunday evening as investors brace for fresh inflation data and political turmoil overseas…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8741,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[138,11129,7675,1943,220,111,139,69,2919],"class_list":{"0":"post-8740","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-cpi","10":"tag-fed-interest-rates","11":"tag-inflation","12":"tag-markets","13":"tag-new-zealand","14":"tag-newzealand","15":"tag-nz","16":"tag-recession"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8740\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8741"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}