{"id":96347,"date":"2025-10-23T11:20:24","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T11:20:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/96347\/"},"modified":"2025-10-23T11:20:24","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T11:20:24","slug":"thursdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/96347\/","title":{"rendered":"Thursday\u2019s analyst upgrades and downgrades"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Ahead of third-quarter earnings season in Canada\u2019s technology sector, National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse emphasizes \u201cperformance this year has been narrow, requiring more attention to stock selection.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cYear-to-date, the S&amp;P \/ TSX Info Tech is up 20 per cent vs. the broader S&amp;P 500 Info Tech Index up 21 per cent (as of October 22 close),\u201d he said. \u201cWhile AI (and related) names have seen outsized performance, there have been pockets of outperformers across special situations. This is not dissimilar in the U.S. where mega caps have been led by their AI leverage at scale. Interestingly, while AI has driven that narrow performance, it\u2019s also cast a cloud across the technology sector \u2013 specifically software and, more recently, IT services as it relates to the potential disruption it may cause in those markets. Aside from the AI theme and special situations, we continue to see potential M&amp;A activity creating opportunity for investors within our coverage universe. As for where we\u2019re sitting against those themes from a specific stock perspective, Canadian Technology names that have flourished year-to-date include Celestica (up 186 per cent), Coveo (up 19 per cent), OpenText (up 38 per cent) and Shopify (up 52 per cent) as it relates to AI. As for unique special situations, we\u2019ve seen gains in names like Kraken Robotics (up 165 per cent) and Zedcor (up 79 per cent), and for M&amp;A, TELUS Digital (up 12 per cent) is the most recent beneficiary.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cLooking to year end, our select picks at the time of writing are Shopify, OpenText and Kinaxis.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a client report, Mr. Tse disputes the common perception that valuations for stocks in the sector are now far too high. Instead, he recommends investors look to future potential.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cBroadly, the U.S. Info Tech Index trades around 37 times forward P\/E today \u2013 in Canada, it\u2019s closer to 53 times,\u201c he said. \u201dWhile high in absolute terms, we need to take into account the expected relative growth rates. All that had us updating our implied growth analysis. For those following our research, you\u2019ve seen this analysis in the past \u2013 in short, it\u2019s an internally built scorecard that assesses what valuations imply for growth for each of our coverage names \u2013 allowing us to make a call on whether those implied growth rates are reasonable based on our expectations of the respective coverage names outlooks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cSome of the core inputs used to perform this analysis are: Long-term industry growth assumptions, based on more mature peers across the past 10 years to lend perspective; Discount rates reflecting the interest rate environment and respective risk premiums, corporate capital structures and operational risk; Normalized net profit margins, benchmarked to mature peers. &#8230; While headline valuations appear elevated in certain pockets, our implied growth analysis shows many of our favoured names, while seemingly expensive on 1-year forward valuations, are less so against the longer-term outlook.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Tse made these target adjustments for stocks in his coverage universe: <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Docebo Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DCBO-Q\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DCBO-Q\/\">DCBO-Q<\/a>\/<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DCBO-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DCBO-T\/\">DCBO-T<\/a>, \u201csector perform\u201d) to US$31 from US$35. The average target on the Street is US$50.56.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analyst: \u201cWe continue to see a balanced risk-to-reward profile. In our view, the stock needs a consistent string of no \u201cone-off\u201d quarters before it can pick up a sustained valuation re-rating. Given that, we maintain our Sector Perform rating on a revised DCF-based target price of US$31.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Kraken Robotics Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/PNG-X\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/PNG-X\/\">PNG-X<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to $7.50 from $5. Average: $5.25.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analyst: \u201cWe expect in-line Q3 results with sequential improvements in both revenue and Adj. EBITDA; however, Kraken\u2019s business can be inherently lumpy due to the timing of product deliveries &#8230; Shares are up significantly across the past month-plus (up over 100 per cent since early September) on the back of Anduril\u2019s Australian Navy win. Given this sharp move, we expect near-term share price volatility, but our long-term thesis and conviction in the name remain strong.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/LSPD-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/LSPD-N\/\">LSPD-N<\/a>\/<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/LSPD-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/LSPD-T\/\">LSPD-T<\/a>, \u201csector perform\u201d) to US$13 from US$15. Average: US$13.64.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analyst: \u201cWe continue to believe the Company must demonstrate a meaningful re-acceleration of customer location growth before it can see a sustained (upward) valuation re-rating, which is starting to gain some early traction (i.e., moving from 3-per-cent year-over-year growth in FQ4 to 5 per cent in FQ1\u201926) but below Lightspeed\u2019s three-year CAGR [compound annual growth rate] target of 10\u201315 per cent for Net Customer Locations from FY26 &#8211; 28.\u201c<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Real Matters Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/REAL-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/REAL-T\/\">REAL-T<\/a>, \u201csector perform\u201d) to $7 from $5.75. Average: $8.11.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analyst: \u201cWe\u2019re expecting essentially in-line FQ4\u201925 (CQ3) results for Real Matters. Recall in FQ3 (Jun) Real Matters delivered results that were below expectations given a softer spring market, a reversion to mean versus prior year volumes, and distortions in the mortgage broken channel where volumes were being pushed to non-banks. Both Net revenue and Adj. EBITDA came in below expectations at US$11.9-milion and US$0.3-milion, respectively. That said, Real Matters continued to onboard new clients, launching four new clients in the quarter \u2013 one being the largest credit union in the U.S. onto its Title platform. Subsequent to quarter end, the Company launched its second Tier 1 lender in U.S. Title and a top 15 lender in U.S. Appraisal.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Shopify Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/SHOP-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/SHOP-N\/\">SHOP-N<\/a>\/<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/SHOP-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/SHOP-T\/\">SHOP-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to US$200 from US$180. Average: US$161.80.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analyst: \u201cWe continue to believe Shopify will deliver outsized growth along with scaling operating leverage. We reiterate our Outperform rating and revise our target price to US$200 off increasing confidence in Shopify\u2019s execution on expanding growth drivers. Our updated DCF-based target implies a valuation of 18.6 times EV\/Sales (was 16.8 times) on FY26E \u2013 we think it\u2019s important to note the implied valuation on next year\u2019s forecasts does not reflect the scaling multiple growth drivers.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Along with his Shopify change, Mr. Tse reiterated \u201c\u201doutperform&#8221; ratings for his other top picks Kinaxis Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/KXS-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/KXS-T\/\">KXS-T<\/a>) and Open Text Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OTEX-Q\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OTEX-Q\/\">OTEX-Q<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OTEX-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OTEX-T\/\">OTEX-T<\/a>) with targets of $240 and US$45, respectively. The averages are $226.28 and US$37.60.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Following adjustments to Scotia\u2019s annual gold and silver price forecasts through 2028 as well as its long-term assumptions, equity analyst Tanya Jakusconek made five rating changes to stocks in her coverage universe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe have increased our gold price forecast to $3,450\/oz, $3,800\/oz, $3,600\/oz and $3,500\/oz from $3,250\/oz, $3,200\/oz, $2,800\/oz and $2,300 for 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028. Our LT (2029+) price increases to $2,600\/oz from $2,300\/oz. We have also increased our silver price forecast to$38.50\/oz, $42\/oz, $40\/oz, $35\/oz (from $34.50\/oz, $33\/oz, $30\/oz, $28\/oz) for 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028. \u201dOur LT silver price (2029+) increased to $30\/oz from $27\/oz,\u201d she said. The increase in prices is supported by economic uncertainty, geopolitical uncertainty and strong central bank buying.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">She upgraded upgraded Newmont Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NEM-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NEM-N\/\">NEM-N<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NGT-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NGT-T\/\">NGT-T<\/a>), Barrick Mining Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/B-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/B-N\/\">B-N<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ABX-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ABX-T\/\">ABX-T<\/a>) and to AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AU-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AU-N\/\">AU-N<\/a>) to \u201csector outperform\u201d ratings from \u201csector perform\u201d previously, pointing to \u201chigher gold price (have above average costs).\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe flag that we expect better operating performance from these companies and valuations are still attractive,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Her target for Newmont rose to US$114 from US$71.50, while her targets for Barrick and AngloGold increased to US$43 and US$90, respectively from US$27.50 and US$55.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Conversely, citing recent share price performance, Ms. Jakusconek downgraded Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TFPM-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TFPM-N\/\">TFPM-N<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TFPM-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TFPM-T\/\">TFPM-T<\/a>) and OR Royalties Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OR-N\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/OR-N\/\">OR-N<\/a>) to \u201csector perform\u201d from \u201csector outperform\u201d ratings. Their targets are now US$35 and US$41, respectively, rising from US$29 and US$33.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cFurthermore, there is less sensitivity in our valuation to higher gold prices with the streaming companies. Operators are preferred to streamers at this point (better margin expansion and lower valuations),\u201d she added.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">The analyst added: \u201cTop picks also include AEM, KGC, NEM, B and AU in the operators and WPM (silver exposure) and RGLD (growth and diversification) in the streamers.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a concurrent report, analyst Ovais Habib upgraded SSR Mining Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/SSRM-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/SSRM-T\/\">SSRM-T<\/a>) to \u201csector outperform\u201d from \u201csector perform\u201d with a $39 target, up from $19 and above the $31.31 average.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe are upgrading SSRM to Sector Outperform (from Sector Perform) based on an improving production profile at Marigold (as stripping at Red Dot gives way to higher grade ore), plus pending permit approvals at CC&amp;V which could allow for significant mine life extension under Amednment 14 (to be further outlined in an upcoming technical report update), and a potential restart of operations at \u00c7\u00f6pler after almost 2 years of rehabilitation work,\u201c he explained. \u201dWe expect free cash flow to inflect higher in 2026 through to 2027 on the back of higher gold production and reduced care &amp; maintenance costs, with longer-term optionality provided by \u00c7\u00f6pler and Hod Maden.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Habib added: \u201cOur top picks for large intermediate producers are AGI, EDV, and PAAS; mid-cap intermediate producer picks include DPM, KNT, NGD, OGC, OLA, SSRM and TXG.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">RBC Dominion Securities analyst Walter Spracklin continues to see Mullen Group Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/MTL-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/MTL-T\/\">MTL-T<\/a>) as a \u201ccompelling investment opportunity\u201d following Wednesday\u2019s release of third-quarter results that he saw as \u201csolid &#8230; especially impressive given the weak industrial and macro updates we got during Q3.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Before the bell, the Alberta-based trucking and logistics company reported adjusted EBITDA of $96-million, exceeding both the analyst\u2019s $91-million estimate and the consensus projection of $95-million. Revenue of $562-million fell short of the Street\u2019s $604-million forecast, however Mr. Spracklin said that result was offset by stronger-than-anticipated EBITDA margin of 17.2 per cent (versus 15.7 per cent).<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">The analyst attributed a 1.4-per-cent drop in the company\u2019s share price on Wednesday to \u201ccommentary on the outlook, with the soft backdrop expected to continue into early 2026, according to management.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cManagement indicated on the conference call that achieving the $350-million EBITDA target for 2025 is unlikely, primarily due to delays in closing the Cole Group acquisition and weaker than expected commodity prices that are negatively affecting the S&amp;I [Specialized &amp; Industrial Services] business,\u201d he said. \u201cManagement was vague when asked to provide updated 2025 expectations except to say they do not expect any material changes in the markets and verticals they serve in the near-term. That said, consensus estimates had already reflected the likelihood that results would not meet guidance. Our 2025 EBITDA estimate in fact moves higher to $334-million (from $326-million) mainly due to stronger than expected Q3 results and ahead of consensus coming into the quarter of $328-million. That said, our estimate of $334-million remains below the company\u2019s formal $350-million guide and consistent with the language noted above. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe got some potential drivers of upside into next year. Key for us on the call was commentary that emerging driver constraints in the U.S. may positively impact rates in Canada and that there is potential upside to demand from \u2018nation-building\u2019 projects. We see this as a driver of upside into next year; and importantly one that we do not believe is priced into shares, which are yielding 10 per cent on our 2026 FCF estimates.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Reaffirming his \u201coutperform\u201d recommendation for Mullen shares, Mr. Spracklin raised his target to $17 from $15 to \u201creflect potential upside to pricing, due to indication capacity may tighten, and to demand, reflecting nation building projects.\u201d The average is $17.22.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Elsewhere, National Bank\u2019s Cameron Doerksen trimmed his target shares to $16.50 from $17 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating, seeing its results still showing a \u201cstagnant market, but possibly some more optimism on the outlook.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cManagement previously indicated that hitting $350-million in EBITDA this year was unlikely (Cole Group acquisition took longer than expected, plus the S&amp;I segment has been softer than originally anticipated), but reiterated its view that the current EBITDA run rate is at the $350-million level,\u201d Mr. Doerksen said. \u201cManagement also expressed some optimism that long-awaited industry-wide trucking capacity supply reductions could materialize, noting that the U.S. is becoming more restrictive on commercial driver\u2019s licenses and in Canada there appears to be an increased focus on safety enforcement, which is removing some trucks from the market.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a research report titled Collective Vision, Finnish Precision, National Bank Financial analyst Don DeMarco formalized coverage of a pair precious metals developers, Collective Mining Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CNL-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CNL-T\/\">CNL-T<\/a>) and Rupert Resources Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RUP-T\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RUP-T\/\">RUP-T<\/a>), saying initiation is \u201ctimely amidst a constructive gold tape with valuation re-rates in view, M&amp;A topical and developers offering added share price torque later in the cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cOver the last 12 months, CNL shares are up 243 per cent (vs. S&amp;P TSX Gold Index at up 91 per cent) as the mineralization potential at Apollo and other prospective opportunities have been proven out,\u201c he explained. \u201dRUP is up 29 per cent over the same L12M period with share performance moderated as it progresses through a period of tempered share price performance as conceptualized by the Lassonde curve, advancing through project, economic and financing de-risking, setting up for a re-rate into development and transition to positive FCF. Developers also benefit from tailwinds on M&amp;A speculation, currently supported by several factors, in our view, including (i) backfilling declining or enhancing growth production profiles; (ii) limited organic opportunities after an extended period of underinvestment in exploration; (iii) acquirors with strong balance sheets and outlook for elevated FCF; (iv) labour pressures mitigated by M&amp;A; and (v) improving sentiment toward M&amp;A from corporates and investors. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cIn our view, we are early in the M&amp;A valuation curve and will see good development projects acquired in the $2 billion to $5 billion range and valuations are adjusted higher to match the potential FCF. We expect consolidation to initially focus on safe-haven jurisdictions, North America, Australia and Europe, as was the case with recent senior producer divestments, before shifting focus to Latam\/South America, and elsewhere globally.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. DeMarco\u2019s ratings and targets are: <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Collective Mining Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CNL-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CNL-T\/\">CNL-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and target of $22.75 per share. The average on the Street is $21.20.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cCNL is advancing the highly prospective Gold-Silver-Copper-Tungsten targets in Colombia\u2019s prolific porphyry district, anchored by its flagship Apollo system at Guayabales, approximately 2 kilometres north of Aris Mining\u2019s 8.8 million ounce gold Marmato complex,\u201d he said. \u201cApollo is underpinned by an expanding database of wide, high-grade intercepts placing it among the major new discoveries this exploration cycle, and heightening anticipation for the maiden resource in H2\/26. Our target and rating is based on a 0.60 times NAVPS estimate and considers several positive attributes including our estimated total resource of 9 million ounces, prospective exploration upside and development tailwinds in an existing mining district endowed with infrastructure, tempered by the early stage with pending resource estimation, scoping studies, PEA and FS de-risking.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Rupert Resources Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RUP-T\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/RUP-T\/\">RUP-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $8.50 target. The average is $12.06.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cRUP is advancing the Ikkari Gold Project in Finland, with a Pre-Feasibility Study showing robust economics including an after-tax NPV5-per-cent of $2.5-billion, buoyant 49-per-cent IRR [internal rate of return] at $2,650\/oz gold, and $575 million initial capex,\u201d he said. \u201cIkkari\u2019s reserve endowment of 3.5 million oz and total resource of 4.2 million oz, drive a mine plan with open pit production of 227k oz\/yr over the first 10 years, a production wheelhouse of broad interest to intermediate\/senior producers, at AISC [all-in sustaining cost] of $717\/oz in the lowest global quartile with read through to a welcomed cost-reducing effect to any mine portfolio. Ikkari\u2019s cost profile is underpinned by elevated open pit Reserve grade of 2.16 g\/t, low strip ratio of 3.6:1, yielding FCF of $359 million\/yr at $2,650\/oz. After open pit depletion, transition to underground mining adds 10 years of production for an above-average 20-year life of mine (LOM). Multiple de-risking catalysts are on deck with the DFS (YE26), permitting (H1\/28) and first pour (NBCMe Q1\/31). Our target and rating is based on a 0.80x NAVPS and considers several positive attributes, including the advanced project stage, tier 1 jurisdiction discounted valuation and exploration upside, tempered by the pending de-risking of permitting, financing and development.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar is expecting to see \u201csolid\u201d earnings per share growth from Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-T) when it reports its third-quarter results before the bell on Oct. 29, pointing to both sales and margin improvements.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">He\u2019s projecting earnings per share of 97 cents for the Montreal-based clothing manufacturer, falling in line with the Street\u2019s estimate and a gain of 12 cents from the same period a year ago. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe continue to expect market share gains in Activewear (recall, GIL expects the market to decline low-single digit in 2025),\u201d he said. \u201cOur Q3\/25 sales forecast (up 1.6 per cent year-over-year) is in line with guidance (up low-single digit year-over-year). <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cNBCM models 30 basis points year-over-year EBIT margin expansion to 22.7 per cent (in line with guidance), reflecting, among other factors, 45 bps gross margin expansion year-over-year (lower cotton\/manufacturing costs, and pricing), partly offset by 15 bps year-over-year higher SG&amp;A rate (incl. D&amp;A).\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Shreedhar now expects Gildan\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-gildan-hanes-tshirts-acquisition-tariffs-glen-chamandy\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-gildan-hanes-tshirts-acquisition-tariffs-glen-chamandy\/\">US$4.4-billion acquisition of Hanesbrands Inc.<\/a> to close by the end of the first quarter of 2026, which is a delay from his previous forecast of the beginning of that fiscal period.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cOur analysis of GIL\u2019s F-4 filing, which provide pro forma combined entity estimates, could suggest NBCM may be conservative, although disclosure prohibits fulsome reconciliation,\u201d he added. \u201cThe F-4 projections reflect U.S. GAAP, and conversion to IFRS would raise EBITDA (NBCM is IFRS). Also, NBCM estimates do not reflect $200-million of one-time costs (in F-4).\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cOur estimates are adjusted accordingly. We hold a favourable view on the acquisition of HBI by GIL. In our view, the consolidated entity merges GIL\u2019s manufacturing\/wholesale strengths with HBI\u2019s branded\/retail strengths, possibly unlocking synergies beyond what management articulated (greater cost synergies).\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Maintaining his \u201coutperform\u201d rating for Gildan shares, Mr. Shreedhar increased his target by $1 to $92 to reflect foreign exchange considerations. The average on the Street is $90.68.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe expect the combined entity to trade at a discount to GIL\u2019s historical range given HBI\u2019s lacklustre historical performance. As GIL demonstrates improvement in HBI\u2019s organic growth, and delivers against its 2026-2028 outlook (which also reflects growth in GIL\u2019s core business), we expect the multiple to reconstitute, and possibly expand beyond GIL\u2019s five-year historical average (we view HBI to ultimately be less volatile than GIL\u2019s historical business),\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Desjardins Securities analyst Gary Ho sees Zedcor Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ZDC-X\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ZDC-X\/\">ZDC-X<\/a>) \u201cpositioned at the intersection of physical guard disruption and compelling value proposition (plenty of white space)\u201d and believes it \u201cpresents a rare land-grab opportunity\u201d for the Calgary-based company.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Accordingly, he initiated coverage of the provider of turnkey and customized mobile surveillance and live monitoring solutions with a \u201cbuy\u201d recommendation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe are positive on ZDC for several reasons: (1) our in-depth TAM analysis suggests significant growth opportunity, sizing up a potential $33.6-billion TAM [total addressable market]; (2) U.S. expansion provides attractive growth catalysts; (3) we see ZDC as a potential take-out candidate from strategics and PE acquirers; (4) ZDC presents a unique counter-cyclical play\u2014 generally, in a tougher macro environment, propensity for crime and theft could increase; this drives greater adoption for ZDC products and surveillance services,&#8221; said Mr. Ho.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a report titled Delivering 24\/7 surveillance monitoring without 24\/7 payroll, Mr. Ho said Zedcor differentiates itself by \u201cdelivering a fully integrated, end-to-end security solution that can be more effective and cost-effective when compared with traditional physical security alternatives, mainly security guards.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cUnlike the traditional security model, which relies on static closed-circuit cameras or on-site guards, ZDC\u2019s live surveillance is managed remotely by Canada-based operators and powered by proprietary 24\/7 monitoring technology,\u201d he added. \u201cA new Houston-based monitoring centre is slated to open in the coming months. This system enables proactive, realtime detection and response to trespassing incidents, theft prevention and vandalism, with a proven crime deterrence rate of more than 95 per cent. When necessary, law enforcement or private security teams can also be dispatched to follow up, usually within 4\u20136 minutes. This integrated approach not only enhances safety but also delivers meaningful cost savings\u2014reducing theft-related losses and minimizing reliance on expensive personnel (25\u201360 per cent cheaper than security guards).&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">He added: \u201cWe conducted a comprehensive, bottom-up analysis on ZDC\u2019s potential TAM where we scrutinized 10 sub-sectors identifying a more than 1.1 million tower opportunity across North America, essentially 3 times larger than ZDC\u2019s estimate of 374,000+. If ZDC maintains its current 10\u201315-per-cent market share with a 25-per-cent market penetration, ZDC could grow to 28,000\u201342,000 towers (14\u201321 times expansion from today\u2019s fleet) with $840-million to $1.26-billion in revenue. Assuming a 40\u201345-per-cent adjusted EBITDA margin benefiting from economies of scale, ZDC adjusted EBITDA is poised to reach $336\u2013567-million vs $18-million in 1H25 annualized EBITDA.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">He set a target of $7.50 per share, exceeding the average target of $6.39.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In other analyst actions:<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* CIBC\u2019s Paul Holden cut his target for Definity Financial Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DFY-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DFY-T\/\">DFY-T<\/a>) to $74 from $80, keeping a \u201cneutral\u201d rating. The average is $79.20.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* In response to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/eqb-announces-strategic-restructuring-program-that-will-impact-q4-2025-reported-results-302591941.html\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/eqb-announces-strategic-restructuring-program-that-will-impact-q4-2025-reported-results-302591941.html\">late Wednesday announcement<\/a> of a strategic restructuring program that includes a $67-million charge and a 8-per-cent headcount reduction, TD Cowen\u2019s Graham Ryding raised his EQB Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/EQB-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/EQB-T\/\">EQB-T<\/a>) target to $105, exceeding the $104.20 average, from $100 with a \u201chold\u201d rating. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThis restructuring program is intended to sharpen EQB\u2019s capital allocation on core growth areas and indicates a lower expense run-rate. Given our higher F2026 EPS forecast, our target price moves to $105 (from $100). We expect the shares to respond positively to the restructuring program. We are maintaining our Hold rating and expect to revisit as we approach FQ4\/25 results,\u201d said Mr. Ryding.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* While he expects Lithium Royalty Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/LIRC-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/LIRC-T\/\">LIRC-T<\/a>) to report weaker revenue for the third quarter than the Street expects on Nov. 4, National Bank\u2019s Mohamed Sidib\u00e9 raised his target for its shares by $1 to $8 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThe quarter should show sequential improvement in LCE t [lithium carbonate equivalent tons] received, driven by sales timing at Grota do Cirilo and a small contribution from Tres Quebradas, as highlighted in Triple Flag Precious Metals\u2019 Q3\/25 preliminary revenue results,\u201d he said. \u201cWe still look for a CFO inflection in early 2027 at our price deck and spot prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAs we look ahead to the next quarter, we also expect a quarter-over-quarter improvement with LIRC adding the Mariana asset owned by Ganfeng Lithium as a contributor and further derisking its revenue. Along with the preview, we lift our target multiple from 1.20 times to 1.30 times, still below small royalty peers average target multiples of 1.40 times, and raise our price target &#8230; Our near-term stance on lithium pricing remains cautious, despite the Q3 speculation-driven rally tied to curtailment headlines in China. We still view potential ex-China curtailments as the most reliable path to a more durable price recovery; we carry a constructive turn beginning in late 2026 into 2027.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Desjardins Securities\u2019 Doug Young raised his Power Corporation of Canada (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/POW-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/POW-T\/\">POW-T<\/a>) target to $65 from $60 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is $61.14.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cSimple math suggests POW could provide a 14-per-cent total return over the next year assuming no change in discount to NAV, with an attractive upside vs downside profile,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Following in-line third-quarter results, TD Cowen\u2019s Aaron MacNeil bumped his Street-low Precision Drilling Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/PD-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/PD-T\/\">PD-T<\/a>) target to $80 from $77 with a \u201chold\u201d rating. The average is $102.87.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cPD is increasingly leaning in to its growth-oriented strategy that directs capital to upgrades in order to capitalize on greenshoots in U.S. gas basins at a time of heightened broader macro uncertainty. Commodity price strength\/weakness will determine the success of this strategy in our view. We remain cautious given the recent deterioration in the crude oil macro,\u201d said Mr. MacNeil.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* TD Cowen\u2019s Jonathan Kelcher raised his StorageVault Canada Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/SVI-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/SVI-T\/\">SVI-T<\/a>) target to $6 from $5.50 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is $5.45.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe think the second consecutive quarter of 5-per-cent-plus SPNOI [same-property net operating income] growth offsets the miss to our (arguably aggressive) Q3 AFFO estimate (cons appears to be closer to the 7.5-per-cent reported growth). Fundamentals are holding steady\/improving with leads up year-over-year and housing activity beginning to pick up. Despite approximately 5 per cent lower estimates, our TP increases to $6 from $5.50 as we roll forward the valuation to 2027,\u201d said Mr. Kelcher.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* CIBC\u2019s Cosmos Chiu hiked his Torex Gold Resources Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TXG-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TXG-T\/\">TXG-T<\/a>) target to $90 from $66 with an \u201coutperformer\u201d rating. The average is $71.91. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Seeing \u201cvalue, momentum and execution\u201d following Whitecap Resources Ltd.\u2019s (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/WCP-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/WCP-T\/\">WCP-T<\/a>) quarterly results, National Bank\u2019s Travis Wood raised his target for its shares to $15 from $14.50 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $13.58.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions Ahead of third-quarter earnings season in Canada\u2019s&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":96348,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[276,261,277,251,249,278,138,275,248,268,269,264,250,247,219,84,273,267,259,289,252,253,266,262,263,256,279,220,257,284,111,285,139,287,282,286,69,280,283,254,271,272,135,270,281,260,145,274,265,258,255,288],"class_list":{"0":"post-96347","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-alberta","9":"tag-arts-news","10":"tag-bc","11":"tag-breaking-news","12":"tag-breaking-news-video","13":"tag-british-columbia","14":"tag-business","15":"tag-canada","16":"tag-canada-news","17":"tag-canada-sports","18":"tag-canada-sports-news","19":"tag-canada-trafficcanada-weather","20":"tag-canadian-breaking-news","21":"tag-canadian-news","22":"tag-economy","23":"tag-education","24":"tag-environment","25":"tag-federal-government","26":"tag-foreign-news","27":"tag-globe-and-mail","28":"tag-globe-and-mail-breaking-news","29":"tag-globe-and-mail-canada-news","30":"tag-government","31":"tag-life-news","32":"tag-lifestyle","33":"tag-local-news","34":"tag-manitoba","35":"tag-markets","36":"tag-national-news","37":"tag-new-brunswick","38":"tag-new-zealand","39":"tag-newfoundland-and-labrador","40":"tag-newzealand","41":"tag-northwest-territories","42":"tag-nova-scotia","43":"tag-nunavut","44":"tag-nz","45":"tag-ontario","46":"tag-pei","47":"tag-photos","48":"tag-political-news","49":"tag-political-opinion","50":"tag-politics","51":"tag-politics-news","52":"tag-quebec","53":"tag-sports-news","54":"tag-technology","55":"tag-travel","56":"tag-trudeau","57":"tag-us-news","58":"tag-world-news","59":"tag-yukon"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96347","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96347"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96347\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96347"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96347"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/nz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96347"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}