Will he or won’t he? That is the question arising from the persistent paddock talk that Max Verstappen is set for a move to the Mercedes Formula One team. Were he to jump ship for next season, Mercedes is the only top team with a seat available.
Remarkably for George Russell, despite him scoring over two thirds of the points for the Brackley based team this year, it appears were Verstappen to join the silver arrows, it wold be Russell making way for the quadruple world champion.
Prior to the sacking of Christian Horner, there was an argument that once again the team boss of twenty years would raise the sleeping Red Bull giant and with their collaboration with Ford on the new 2026 power units, bring Red Bull back to the very top.
A “press event in Spa” expected
Horner had created a tight knit culture at the Red Bull HQ and its uncertain whether the sense of betrayal a number of the employees expressed on hearing of Horner’s sacking, will lead to a mass exodus of staff to other F1 teams.
Further – and this still applies – as Adrian Newey said back in January, any one of the power unit manufacturers could come out on top and dominate the next era of F1 power. To that end it would be sensible for the world champion to wait and see how the pecking order in 2026 shakes out, as Aston Martin with their winning Honda partners and guru f1 car designer Adrian Newey, may well be the ones who ace the new 2026 specifications.
During the team’s recent run of success, Verstappen had claimed he wished to complete his F1 career with the Red Bull team. Yet after four successful years as driver champion, Verstappen faces the very real prospect of losing his crown this year to one of the McLaren drivers.
The matter will be finally out to bed when either Mercedes announce the renewal of their current drivers’ contracts for 2026, or as Dutch F1 commentator, Nelson Valkenburg, believes: “we’ve been hearing rumblings that we might have to prepare for some sort of press event in Spa,” he told the Nailing the Apex podcast.
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And given the shock sacking of Horner since the last F1 gathering, this will invariably be true. Yet Valkenberg argues, “Red Bull’s in a difficult spot here, because they have a contract, they cannot renegotiate. The only thing they need to prove to Verstappen is that they can build a car that he can become a champion with next year. And that’s where the doubt is.”
There’s been a deep worry developing in the Verstappen camp, over whether the team is past its best in terms of the design function responsible for the car concepts in recent years. “And over the last few years, race by race by race, Verstappen seems to have lost confidence in the technical team, the design team within Red Bull. Not the race team, not the people trying to get the most out of the car, but really the design team,” adds Valkneberg.
Of course Red Bull are taking on the impossible for 2026 too, becoming the first ever F1 customer team to build its own power unit, in association with Ford. This is an additional worry for Verstappen, says the Dutch F1 commentator: “There is doubt about the engine program, there’s doubt about the technical leadership under Pierre Waché. And nothing Red Bull right now can show or tell Verstappen will change that narrative all too much.”
In all the talk of dissatisfaction between the Verstappen’s and Red Bull Racing, they are the only pairing this year besides McLaren to have won multiple Grand Prix. Whilst the RB21 has been described as “tricky” to drive, in the hands of their star driver its the second best in the field. Yet were Red Bull to produce a chassis and powertrain design which proved to be a just a midfield runner, Valkenberg rather drastically claims, “If that is true, that team will explode with Verstappen inside.”
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If the reports are to be believed, that Horner had to go because the team has suffered a brain drain and needs to urgently rebuild, Verstappen would already have his signature on a shiny new Mercedes’ contract. So regardless of the mutterings from Jos and Max’s manager, it appears it’s not inevitable that the writing is on the wall.
While for Max it would be dreadful to sign up to a year of potential mediocrity, should Red Bull not sort out their problems. But it would be even worse if his old family team came out on top, with possibly George Russell now as their winning driver. Whatever decision Verstappen takes, is a gamble into the unknown.
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Zak Brown fears Verstappen to Mercedes move
One senior paddock boss is concerned at the thought of a move by Verstappen to Mercedes. “I think Mercedes is a team on the rise,” said the CEO of McLaren, Zak Brown to The Sports Agents Podcast. “Red Bull at the moment has challenges. It doesn’t mean that they can’t fix those challenges,” he added.
“But Max in a Mercedes is pretty uncomfortable to think about because he’s awesome! So I think I’d rather he stay where he is,” was Brown’s conclusion.
Were Max’s points to be removed from Red Bull’s totals this season, there team wold be last in the constructors’ championship. Such is the difficult nature of the RB21 to drive. Yet if Max were to leave, this would force a rethink within the Red Bull Racing organisation, and maybe force a more manageable racing prototype, which may be slower but better for two new drivers to share.
The news that Lewis Hamilton wold be joining the Ferrari team came before the 2024 season had even begun, giving the team time to adjust their planned SF-25 in line with the seven times champions demands.
Hamilton had observed of the design of his previous three Mercedes F1 challengers that the driving position was the furthest forward he has experienced in his life. He believed this meant he was experiencing significant difficulties with the feel of the rear end of the car and during Hamilton’s dominant era with the silver arrows, a planted rear was key to his extended success.
Ferrari’s 2025 challenger moved the position of the cockpit rearward when compared to the design Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc had run last season. This meant the fuel tank and engine were also relocated rearwards which as ex-F1 car designer Gary Anderson believes this compromised the space in front of the gearbox, affecting the pull rod rear suspension too…. READ MORE
