Gold rose to a new record, topping $3,500 per ounce, as investors bet on the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this month amid concerns that the tariff turmoil will damage economic growth.
The price of the precious metal, regarded as a safe haven in times of market turbulence, rose 2.2 per cent on the day to $3,549.40 an ounce, its best session in three months, bringing its gain for the year to date to 35 per cent.
“The gold market is entering a seasonally strong period for consumption, coupled with expectations for a rate cut at the September Fed meeting. We continue to expect new record highs,” Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, said.
Traders are now pricing in a 91.7 per cent chance of a quarter-point rate cut from the current range of 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Non-yielding gold typically benefits in a lower interest rate environment.
Analysts said gold’s record run this year, with several new highs, has been underpinned by sustained central bank purchases, diversification away from the dollar, resilient safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade frictions, and broad dollar weakness.
Uncertainty about US policy in general, and trade tariffs in particular, under President Trump has also added to the metal’s appeal. His public clashes with Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, and an attempt to remove Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, have raised concerns over the central bank’s independence.
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Commerzbank, in a note referring to the federal open market committee, which sets interest rates, said: “The accusations against Cook are a clear warning to other FOMC members to bow to government pressure for substantial rate cuts. This makes gold investments more attractive in such an environment.”
Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JP Morgan, which has a year-end target price for gold of $3,675 an ounce, said: “Central bank buying can continue to hold the floor for gold.”
Attention now turns to America’s non-farm payrolls data on Friday for clues about the size of a September rate cut.