Tennis betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt Felix Auger-Aliassime to beat Alex de Minaur at 13/10 (General)
1pt Iga Swiatek to beat Amanda Anisimova 2-0 at 4/5 (bet365, BetVictor, betway)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Jannik Sinner v Lorenzo Musetti
When Grigor Dimitrov’s injury let Sinner off the hook at Wimbledon, the Italian wasn’t for offering up second chances.
It’s looking like history could repeat itself, to some extent, in New York.
While Denis Shapovalov never had Sinner where Dimitrov did, the Canadian was certainly in the box seat before crumbling in their third-round clash.
And when Sinner returned to the court on Monday night he duly destroyed Alexander Bublik for the loss of just three games.
When you see performances and results that like, you have to question how anyone else can stand a chance and, as someone who felt Bublik would be able to land a blow or two, I’ve no interest in getting involved here.
Strong on all surfaces, Musetti was one of the players I was keen to follow from the start in 2025 but an early-season injury disrupted him. He has rediscovered his form in New York though and was similarly brutal in dispatching Jaume Munar in the last round.
However, his run likely ends now – he’s lost both previous matches against his compatriot in straight sets. A repeat here is 4/6. Such odds never appeal to me but, then again, Sinner absolutely sauntered to winning this bet on Monday.
Perhaps Musetti can do better this time around – he is 11/8 to grab a set – but that line of attack proved embarrassing in Sinner’s last match and I much prefer to look elsewhere on Wednesday’s coupon.
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Alex de Minaur
I was a little surprised to see Auger-Aliassime up at 13/10 to win this one.
That’s not a sentence I thought I’d be writing when I saw his scrappy win over Billy Harris in round one – the Briton should have won at least a set – but the Canadian arrives at this quarter-final having just knocked out seeds Alex Zverev and Andrey Rublev, losing only one set in the process.
De Minaur is into the quarter-finals of a Slam for the sixth time – and without losing a set – but he’s never been beyond this stage, one at which he’s so often met his match and been well beaten. Indeed, he’s yet to win a set in a major QF.
It’s often been the case that he’s been unable to cope with a power player at this stage with defeats suffered at the hands of Dominic Thiem, Zverev, Jannik Sinner and, at this tournament 12 months ago, Jack Draper.
Auger-Aliassime fits that profile – his serve will be cranked up towards 140mph and the groundstrokes he’s capable of hitting will rush De Minaur and certainly have the potential to punch holes in his famous defence.
It’s long been said that De Minaur’s game is limited and while he remains arguably he best ball-retriever in the game, he does lack that big weapon that many of the elite possess.
A look at the head-to-head shows FAA has won all three of the previous hardcourt meetings and hasn’t lost a set in doing so.
Admittedly, I’ve long struggled to get on the right side of FAA but judged on how he’s playing – and how he’s played De Minaur in the past – I believe he can land the upset here.
Karolina Muchova v Naomi Osaka
Based on what these two have achieved in the past, it’s hard to be too surprised by the fact they have both reached the quarter-finals.
But it was certainly hard to be confident about either doing so at the start of the tournament.
While Osaka did make the Montreal final a few weeks ago, she hasn’t had an impact on a Grand Slam tournament for many years. But some punters will surely take on board the fact on the four other occasions Osaka has reached the last eight of a Slam, she’s gone on to lift the trophy.
She’s only lost one set so far, whereas Muchova has been taken the distance in every round.
The Czech is seeking her third successive US Open semi-final and she clearly enjoys the conditions here. Too often her body has let her down but Muchova seems OK at the moment and certainly has the potential to disrupt Osaka with the variety in her game.
She’s won two of the previous four meetings, including at this tournament 12 months ago, and 2/1 is a tempting price for her to take control of that head-to-head by winning here.
However, the fatigue factor is something of a concern – she looked weary after a three-hour battle on Monday – and it’s just not a bet I’m prepared to pull the trigger on, particularly with former champ Osaka playing so well.
Amanda Anisimova v Iga Swiatek
Less than two months ago, these two met in the Wimbledon final and Anisimova didn’t win a game.
The script writers will have her gaining revenge in front of a patriotic home crowd but, frankly, it’s hard to envisage.
Quite how you turn that around so quickly is anyone’s guess and it’s my belief that Anisimova will be bringing a lot of baggage to the court here – probably too much.
Such defeats can inflict real psychological damage and Swiatek isn’t one to take her foot off the throat.
Bar a second-set stutter against Suzan Lamens, it’s been plain sailing for the Pole in New York, with the way she dismissed the in-form Ekaterina Alexandrova last time out noteworthy.
Anisimova dropped even fewer games (three v four) in her last-16 victory over Beatriz Haddad-Maia to prove she’s in fine form but then she also went into the Wimbledon final off the back of victory over world number one Aryna Sabalenka.
Since the start of Wimbledon, Swiatek has won 16 of her 19 matches in straight sets and 4/5 about a repeat here looks worth taking.
In my book, she just does everything that bit better than Anisimova and I see her taking another step towards the title.
Posted at 1720 BST on 02/09/25
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