The Ministry of Defence has confirmed new projections for the UK’s defence spending, setting out a path towards the government’s target of 3% of GDP in the next Parliament.
The information was published in a series of written answers to Parliament, responding to questions from James Cartlidge, Conservative MP for South Suffolk.
Luke Pollard, Parliamentary Under-Secretary at the Ministry of Defence, provided a breakdown of projected UK spending: the MOD budget will represent 2.08% of GDP in 2025-26, rising to 2.20% by 2027-28, while total defence spending under NATO’s definition is forecast at 2.36% in 2025-26, reaching 2.60% in 2027-28.
He added that “under NATO guidance Government expenditure can be counted towards defence spending, provided it is specifically to meet the needs of its armed forces, those of Allies or of the Alliance.”
The figures come as NATO has set a far more ambitious long-term benchmark. At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, Allies committed to allocating 5% of GDP annually on core defence and security-related requirements by 2035. This includes a binding commitment to spend at least 3.5% of GDP on NATO-defined defence expenditure, with up to 1.5% reserved for resilience measures such as protecting critical infrastructure, civil preparedness, and strengthening the defence industrial base. NATO has instructed member states to submit annual plans showing a credible incremental path to this target.
In Parliament, Maria Eagle, Minister of State at the Ministry of Defence, was pressed by Cartlidge on how the UK’s Defence Investment Plan will be structured. She said: “The Defence Investment Plan will set out the Department’s spending plans to deliver the vision of the Strategic Defence Review against its forecast budget. This will be based on the Department’s Spending Review settlement, and the MOD’s projected share of the Government’s ambition to spending 3% of GDP on defence in the next Parliament as and when fiscal and economic conditions allow.”
Asked whether the plan would be tied to cost envelopes of 2.5%, 3% or 3.5%, Eagle replied: “The Defence Investment Plan will set out how the MOD will deliver the vision of the Strategic Defence Review within the MOD’s share of the Government’s commitment to spending 2.6% of GDP on defence by 2027, and 3% of GDP in the next Parliament as fiscal and economic conditions allow.”
On the role of intelligence funding, Eagle confirmed that the government’s future increases will incorporate the Single Intelligence Account, saying: “The Prime Minister has been clear about the contribution our intelligence and security services make to the defence of our nation. The commitment to spend 2.6% on defence from 2027 will include all spend relating [to] the Single Intelligence Account.”
When the Wales Defence Investment Pledge was signed in 2014, only three Allies met the 2% target. By 2025, all members are expected to exceed it, with European Allies and Canada together raising their investment from 1.43% of GDP in 2014 to just over 2% in 2024. The Alliance has also maintained a separate benchmark that at least 20% of defence spending should go on major equipment, research, and development, to ensure modernisation and interoperability.