F1 expert Louis Bollard previews the Italian Grand Prix, where Ferrari fans could be in for another treat.

F1 betting tips: Italian Grand Prix

2pts Charles Leclerc to win the Italian Grand Prix at 14/1 (General)

3pts Lance Stroll to finish in the points at 4/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Formula One heads to Monza this weekend for the second part of a European double-header and the closure of the European season. McLaren had it their own way in Zandvoort last time but Monza presents a different challenge that could benefit their competition.

Zandvoort and Monza are contrasting tracks with maximum downforce required in Zandvoort to the minimum in Monza. We will see all teams run Monza-specific rear wings, the like of which we rarely see used away from this circuit. While McLaren have been clear best car this season, the pecking order on low drag tracks is up for debate.

The last few years’ trends have seen Ferrari become dubbed ‘King of the outlier circuits’ and Monza is certainly one of those, so at the prices it’s worth chancing CHARLES LECLERC.

Leclerc drove impeccably to pull off a one-stop win here last year, denying Oscar Piastri. This season has seen Ferrari fall further behind McLaren in performance terms but there have been enough glimmers of hope to suggest they could join the fight for victory here. Namely, Leclerc’s P2 in Monaco and contesting with the leaders in Hungary.

The Ferrari engine is tuned to benefit on tracks where short busts of power out of slow corners are a requirement, and that’s what Monza is: slow corners and long straights. This layout also demands less of balancing the car throughout a wide range of corners, which is the McLaren’s biggest strength. We saw the Mercedes benefit from this feature in Canada but preference is for the home team this weekend given Monza’s engine demands.

While there perhaps isn’t as much between Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton as the odds suggest, Hamilton has to take a five-place penalty this weekend which will see him get mixed up with the midfield on a track where it is not easy to overtake. Leclerc can join the fight for the win and challenge for consecutive home victories for the Tifosi in Monza.

Stroll to points

We saw the peaks and troughs of LANCE STROLL in Zandvoort.

A crash in practice and qualifying saw him start the race from the back of the grid, yet a superb Sunday that was triggered by an early pitstop allowed by the superior pace of his Aston Martin resulted in a P7 result, his third points scoring result in the last four.

Stroll has form at Monza having secured a podium in a chaotic race in 2020.

Aston Martin looks to have the edge over the midfield once again as they have finally got their upgrades to click. Monza is not their preferred venue but at the prices Stroll is value to get in the mix for points in a car that is globally superior to his midfield rivals.

Other drivers’ chances

Lando Norris

Will be devastated to now be 34 points behind after losing 18 points to mechanical failure. Time to start taking risks.

Oscar Piastri

Another clinical weekend last time. Challenged for the win here last year. Will be thinking of the championship rather than taking risks even if that means letting another team win. His eyes will be solely on the other papaya car.

Max Verstappen

Tried everything in commendable fashion to get into the lead in Zandvoort. Car will enjoy the ease of setup on this track but it’s a setup that has not suited Red Bull, slow corners. Will benefit from increased cautiousness from Piastri when in combat.

Alex Albon

Low-drag circuits inherently suit the Williams. After a surprise strong weekend in Zandvoort, they could be on for another strong weekend here and challenge for the top six.

Ollie Bearman

Looks to have a handle on this Haas after a superb P6 from the pitlane last time out. Ferrari engine helps them at the this track. Saturdays are still an issue but they could come through the field even after a poor qualifying.

Yuki Tsunoda

A steady weekend saw him score points last time out. He comes to a venue where his predecessor was able to have good results relevant to other circuits. Positive signs are there that second Red Bull will work at this venue even when not working at any other track.

Posted at 1030 BST on 04/09/25

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