This year so far, the UK has experienced its sunniest spring and warmest summer on record. Both these seasons have also been very dry for many, especially for some regions of England and Wales, where hosepipe bans remain in force and drought has been officially declared.
The data from January to August shows that the UK as a whole has received just 44% of its expected annual rainfall (compared to an expected average of 67% by this stage in the year).
If we were to reach ‘normal’ rainfall totals by the end of the year, we’d need to see a very wet spell of weather from September to December, with 141% of average rainfall each month.
Although this week’s rainfall is welcome and will go some way to help river levels and soil moisture content, it will take some time for catchments to recover and for reservoirs and aquifers to respond. Rainfall moves slowly through the water cycle, needing to soak deep through the soil and way down into the groundwater stores.
According to the Met Office “Sustained rainfall throughout autumn and winter will be needed in some areas to restore water resources.”.
As our world warms, climate scientists expect the UK to experience wetter, warmer winters and hotter, drier summers. Although the distribution and intensity of the UK’s rainfall is shifting, the link between climate change and drought is complex due to hydrological and societal factors.