Peter Mandelson has been sacked as Britain’s ambassador to the US, ending days of speculation over his position after it emerged that he told the convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein to fight for early release from jail.

Mandelson was under increasing pressure over his friendship with the disgraced financier. No 10 has confirmed that the deputy head of mission, James Roscoe, will be acting interim ambassador, with Donald Trump’s state visit imminent.

But for the permanent role, will Starmer choose another political player or an experienced diplomat?

The runners and ridersKaren Pierce Photograph: Ted Shaffrey/AP

Pierce has had the job before – during the first Trump presidency – and is known to have made close connections with Republicans and was well liked in Washington. Many in Whitehall believed Pierce should have remained as ambassador but she has since moved to a role in the Balkans. Still a Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) insider, it would be unusual to move her back but the right choice if Starmer wants a seasoned pro with no baggage.

David Miliband

Former Labour cabinet minister and president of the International Rescue Committee

Photograph: David Levenson/Getty Images

Miliband, the brother of the energy secretary, Ed Miliband, quit UK politics after his brother defeated him for the Labour leadership. He has spent more than a decade in the US as head of one of the biggest international aid organisations.

Often tipped for a comeback to UK politics, he is known to have been shortlisted for the role but No 10 insiders believed he would have been a better fit had Kamala Harris won the presidency for the Democrats. Whitehall insiders do not believe No10 will go for another candidate who might pose political risk.

Christian Turner Photograph: Remo Casilli/Reuters

His name has been the most frequent tip of Whitehall sources. Turner has long been due a big promotion and was heading to New York – but Foreign Office insiders believe he would be a serious contender to take on the Washington job instead. He has had a slew of high-profile foreign postings and has been close to politics as international affairs adviser to Theresa May.

Richard Moore  Photograph: Matt Dunham/AP

As spook-in-chief, Moore will have cultivated very close relationships in Washington and the Pentagon, essential for the job with the world in turmoil. He knows the Foreign Office well, having previously been its director general of political affairs. Several sources have tipped him for the job.

Catherine Ashton Photograph: APA-PictureDesk/Alamy

Ashton is a Labour peer and former minister who also served as an EU trade commissioner. In 2009, she became the EU’s foreign policy chief, subsequently winning praise for her role in relations with Kosovo and Iran. She is one of the most distinguished British diplomats of her generation but less likely to have any current links with the US administration.

George Osborne Photograph: Shutterstock

Osborne is said to have been approached about the job by No 10, despite a deep dislike for the austerity chancellor within the Labour party. He has similar appeal to Mandelson: a serious schmoozer who cultivates friendships with important people. Starmer’s biographer Tom Baldwin said No 10 aides “invested considerable effort in unsuccessfully pushing the former Tory chancellor’s application”. However, having been burned by appointing Mandelson, Osborne looks unlikely.

Valerie Amos

Former cabinet minister and diplomat

Photograph: Mark Thomas/Alamy

Amos, a close friend of the Labour donor Lord Waheed Alli, was said to be another favourite for the job had Harris won the presidency. She was the first black woman to serve in the cabinet as Tony Blair’s international development secretary. Colleagues have described her as extremely discreet and professional.

Lindsay Croisdale-ApplebyLindsay-Croisdale-Appleby Photograph: Handout

Croisdale-Appleby is the FCDO insiders’ tip for a possible move to Washington. He is the current EU ambassador and a Spanish speaker, useful in the US given its large Hispanic community. He would be a safe choice as a very experienced diplomat.

Barbara Woodward

Outgoing permanent secretary for the UK to the UN

Photograph: Angelina Katsanis/Reuters

One of three women interviewed for the top job at MI5, Woodward’s diplomatic career has put her at the heart of some of the biggest international crises. But she was previously criticised for being too conciliatory towards Beijing during her time as China’s ambassador.