Russian roubles. Stock photo: Getty Images
Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has updated its macroeconomic forecast, as indicated by data that was briefly shared by the Kremlin-aligned newspaper Kommersant before being taken down.
Source: Russian media outlet The Bell
Details: Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development has updated its macroeconomic forecast, which has been prepared but not yet officially published.
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According to The Bell, the ministry’s updated macro forecast was apparently shared with Kommersant, but the newspaper removed the article from its website for unknown reasons.
However, the text remains accessible in instant preview format on Telegram.
The main change is a downward revision of GDP growth expectations: the 2025 forecast has been cut from 2.5% to 1%, and the 2026 forecast from 2.4% to 1.3%.
The investment outlook has also been downgraded: instead of the previously expected 3% growth in 2026, a 0.5% decline is now projected. The Ministry of Economic Development attributes this to the “high base of recent years” and tight monetary policy.
The production forecast has been lowered as well: from 2.6% to 1.5% in 2025, and from 2.9% to 2.3% in 2026.
External economic conditions, however, are assessed more positively: the trade surplus in goods is expected to reach US$106.9 billion in 2025 (compared to US$86.8 billion in the April version of the ministry’s forecast).
The rouble is projected to strengthen to 86.10 to the US dollar on average in 2025 (versus an earlier forecast of 94.30), but then weaken again to 92.20 to the dollar in 2026.
The ministry also forecasts Brent crude prices at US$70 per barrel in 2025-2027 (down from the earlier expectation of US$72 in 2026-2027).
Background: Russia’s Finance Ministry has recently proposed legislation that would raise value-added tax (VAT) from 20% to 22%.
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