As the racing reaches the halfway mark at the 2025 UCI World Championships in Rwanda, attention is slowly turning towards the flagship road races to come this weekend.
While the women’s event appears an open affair between the Demi Vollerings, Pauline Ferrand-Prévots and Elisa Longo Borghinis of the world, Tadej Pogačar is stealing all the attention on the startlist for the men’s event, set to take place on a 267km-long route on Sunday 28th September.
After the 100km-long solo attack from last year and another twelve months spent at the top of world cycling’s pecking order, it seems almost a foregone conclusion that the tufty-haired Slovenian will claim his second rainbow jersey on Sunday. On a 267km-long route filled with African bergs, Ardennes-like kickers and an eyewatering amount of elevation gain, the Slovenian’s odds sit close to 6/11.
Today, we check the Slovenian’s vital signs to see whether anyone can stop him from claiming another lump of gold on Sunday.
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The hardest Worlds course in years
To evaluate Pogačar’s chances, we must first look at the route.
Kigali is known as the city of a thousand hills. It shouldn’t come as a shock, therefore, to know that this year’s route is a brute, with a dizzying amount of climbing and a flurry of cobblestone climbs employed. So far, this makes pleasant reading for the reigning champ.
The total amount of elevation gain is disputed between sources – with claims between 5,200m and 6,000m – but the routing platform Komoot believes the course is roughly 5,400m. This figure is interesting, because there aren’t any Alpine-like tests to note. Instead, the course is constantly undulating, with the Côte de Kimihurura (6.2%) and Côte de Kigali Golf (0.8km at 8.1) tackled on 16 occasions. In this sense, it’s akin to the Ardennes Classics.
To add, the entirety of the course is at altitude. The host city Kigali sits at over 1,500m above sea level. It’s widely regarded that the 2,000m barrier is where altitude plays more of a factor, but we’re not far off that figure here. On the other hand, most of the contenders have spent a fair chunk of their season at altitude to prepare for the Grand Tours. That said, the most recent altitude camp for Pogačar came back in June ahead of the Tour de France.
The altitude, cobblestones and the large accumulation of elevation make this one of the toughest World Championship courses in a generation. For context, last year’s road race featured around 4,300m – almost the exact same as Liège-Bastogne-Liège – while the Glaswegian parcours from 2023 clocked up a total of 3,400m. The closest any route has come since the turn of the millennium is Innsbruck 2018, which proposed a mountainous course of 5,000m elevation.
Over 5,000m of elevation gain in one day is unheard of in pro cycling. Even the hardest Grand Tour stages rarely surpass this. For example, the queen stage from this year’s Tour de France tallied 5,300m. Outside of the Grand Tours, there’s no comparison. Il Lombardia is the most mountainous of the five Monuments, and that only comes to 4,800m in its toughest iteration tackled by the current peloton. Factoring this in, many believe the course will tailor the climbers more than previous years – hence the absence of riders like Mathieu van der Poel and Mads Pedersen.
The ultimate Pogi-friendly course
Xavier Pereyron
Let’s be honest here, this course suits Pogačar perfectly.
It’s a bona fide Ardennes Classic with a sprinkling of cobblestones and a ridiculous amount of elevation gain. Every single one of the features should play into his strengths, while many of the other contenders may only appreciate two of these three unique elements.
The brevity of the climbs should suit Pogačar more than some of his thoroughbred GC counterparts, who require a 5km-long climb to shine. I’m thinking about Juan Ayuso, Oscar Onley and Egan Bernal when I say this. On a course of 6,000m of elevation, the climbers will naturally thrive, but it’s fatigue resistance and a powerful kick that will separate the winner from the pack. On a course as long as this, a Classics pedigree could hold the balance of power over a pure climber’s sensibilities.
Several riders complained about the cobbles after the time-trial events earlier in the week, so it may play a factor in the outcome this weekend. We haven’t seen the effect of the cobblestones yet in any of the road race events, but if they’re anything like Flanders, this will be to the reigning Tour of Flanders winner’s benefit. In comparison, many of his rivals are also untested on cobbles, or at least, unknown quantities on the pavé.
Better the devil you know
Dario Belingheri/Getty Images
With his track record in one-day races, the discourse surrounding this World Championship has been fiercely concentrated on Pogačar rather than his rivals, who would inevitably fill the two other spots on the podium and dictate the race dynamic. While most of the impetus will be placed on Slovenia, no team will shun the chance to chase a podium spot or challenge for the title.
After his thrashing at the weekend, perhaps we should look towards Remco Evenepoel. The Belgian has what it takes to win a world title, having claimed the rainbow jersey solo in 2022. To add, his form seems to be on an upward curve, as demonstrated by his stellar time-trial performance. The Olympic champion also has a strong pedigree in Classics and championship events, but he has failed to defeat Pogačar in a one-day race since the Australian World Championships three years ago. The threat of a solo Remco move is always there, but we’ve seen in recent years that Pogačar is capable of marking the Belgian’s signature play.
Pogačar’s younger stablemate at UAE Team Emirates XRG Isaac del Toro should line up on Sunday as one of the strongest contenders for Tadej’s rainbow throne. The Mexican has been in miraculous form in recent weeks, scooping up a handful of victories in lower-tier Italian races. Yes, the field wasn’t the strongest there, but he backed up those results with a solid top-five finish on Sunday’s time-trial. Despite a lack of teammates on the Mexican roster, Del Toro should benefit from the punchy course. If he manages to roll with the punches, Del Toro is familiar with Pogačar’s demeanour, having spent the past two years racing under the same banner. If they join forces, the pair could fly off to victory. But would Del Toro dare challenge his team’s most prized possession? Could the two go one-two or play rock, paper, scissors for the title?
Elsewhere, Tom Pidcock could be another kingmaker. We saw in Strade Bianche that he was one of the only riders capable of following the Slovenian tyrant, while his recent performances in the Vuelta showed great indications of a podium bid here in Rwanda. That said, it takes more than ambition to topple the UAE leader’s tight-fisted grip. Fellow outsiders Egan Bernal, Giulio Ciccone, Richard Carapaz and Mattias Skjelmose also have more question marks to be addressed, leaving them as more hopeful cards rather than realistic heirs to the rainbow jersey.
Without Wout van Aert here too, the field really looks lopsided towards Pogačar, Evenepoel and Del Toro. With two of the three on the same trade team, the race dynamic could be interesting. The sceptic in me, however, believes this could increase the possibility for another Slovenian title, especially if his teammate Primož Roglič is back in form.
The reinforcements
Xavier Pereyron
Courtesy of Slovenia’s ongoing cycling tyranny, the nation secures a healthy number of entries into the road race, which is determined by UCI points accumulated by all the country’s riders throughout the year. This September, the Slovenian team has increased in numbers from eight to nine.
The team is largely the same as last year’s. The only rider not to be passed over from the Zurich lineup is Jan Tratnik, who played an important role last autumn. In his absence, the team has called up two WorldTour riders in former Milan-San Remo champion Matej Mohorič and recent Vuelta finisher Gal Glivar. They’ll join Primož Roglič, Matevž Govekar, Luka Mezgec, Domen Novak, Matic Žumer and Jaka Primožič in Rwanda. With seven of the nine contracted to top-tier teams, this is no team to turn your head at.
Pogačar’s principal domestique will be Roglič. The Red Bull rider has performed well in one-day races in the past – he’s a Monument winner, let’s not forget – and should have the mountain legs to hang on in a second group on the road and disrupt any efforts to chase down his younger countryman. Add to this the experienced Domen Novak, who has been working for Pogačar at UAE for some years now and the cunning Matej Mohoric, this squad has the manpower to control this race, despite the heavy serving of hills to be had on Sunday.
As much as Team Slovenia have improved in recent years, their line-up is still behind that of France and Italy. While those teams are stronger, their talismen are a few strata below Pogačar or Evenepoel. On the other hand, the Belgian team at this year’s event seems weaker than it has been in previous years. As mentioned, there’s no Wout van Aert, who proved influential in Evenepoel’s Olympic and World Championship wins. Instead, Evenepoel will have to rely on time-trial bronze medallist Ilan Van Wilder and Visma millstone Victor Campenaerts. Their relative weakness could play into Slovenia’s hands.
Any other business?
Dario Belingheri/Getty Images
Following the time-trial on Sunday, Pogačar cited fatigue as a reason behind his disappointing fourth place – at least, disappointing for his standards.
The Slovenian rode the Québec races, which mix hefty travel time and jetlag into an already-busy September period that also required extra travel time to Rwanda from Europe. Yes, he’s barely raced since the Tour, but his jam-packed 2025 schedule seemed to have caught up with him last weekend. His rivals Evenepoel and Del Toro have been racing a fair bit over the past month, and both have managed to keep the ball rolling with strong results and consistent victories. In comparison, Pogačar has been below his usual par since the start of the autumn. If he’s still struggling on Sunday, his bite may be more blunt than normal.
On top of this, the weather could play against the reigning champion. Pogačar has previously struggled in the heat. This isn’t speculation, but a confession from the man himself. By his own admission, the four-time Tour champion prefers colder and wetter conditions, more like last year’s Worlds in Switzerland.
Luckily for Pogi, Sunday’s road race is expected to be around 26°C with a 57% humidity. For Rwandan standards this is fairly pedestrian, and nothing too dissimilar to the average Tour de France stage in scorching July. However, conditions could change, with rain forecasted for the evening on Sunday as of the time of writing. If the heavens open in the final phase of the road race, Pogačar will have an edge over Del Toro and Evenepoel, both of whom thrive in hotter, more humid conditions.
Is it all too perfect?
Xavier Pereyron
While fatigue and form seem uncharacteristically shaky at the moment for Pogačar, the fact of the matter is that this is a perfect course for the reigning champion. It’s got as many climbing metres as a Tour queen stage, and the punchy, relentless climbs lean into Pogačar’s Classic prestige, with some pavé for good measure.
Yes, his team support isn’t as formidable as his usual UAE Team Emirates XRG troops, but his competitors here are few and far between. Evenepoel is more of a Classics rider than a climber, so the accumulated mountains could be the thorn in his side, while Del Toro arrives with little team support and an unproven record in major one-day races at this level. The only rider in this race with a bulletproof palmarès is Pogačar. Plain and simple.
So, there you go. At this point in time, no one looks likely to beat Tadej Pogačar on Sunday. However, without the UAE miracle dust and the lurking threat of an Evenepoel explosion, the race looks more open than last year. However, in this day and age, when the sport’s big victories are shared between an elite group of riders, don’t fool yourself into expecting an upset on Sunday.
