Likely a relaxing day lays ahead, in the middle of the mountains. All focus will be on the final sprint and this will be a very fast one. In Valence the finale will be straightforward until a sharp corner with 600 meters to go. From there on, fully straight and flat to crown a sprinter.
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2025 stage 17
The wind will be felt, this is a windy area of the country, but it will come from the north – which means that all-in-all, it will be a headwind and it will not be good for any breakaway attempt. If it weren’t the last week I would go as far as saying we wouldn’t have a breakaway.
The Favourites
Jonathan Milan – Lidl-Trek have lost Mattias Skjelmose and so there are no secondary ambitions. Get Milan in the intermediate sprint and the final sprint to gain as many points as possible in the final sprint stage to defend himself against Pogacar. On paper you could say this is a pretty good finale for the Italian, with a tailwind sprint, and his leadout remains intact here.
Tim Merlier – The Belgian does not have a true leadout but the truth is he’s won in this race already twice without one. He just has to get himself in the wheel of Milan and if he does so, he can absolutely win sprint number 3.
You will have Biniam Girmay, Kaden Groves, Jordi Meeus (or if he is absent, then Danny van Poppel) and Arnaud de Lie as men who in my opinion, in the current context of the race, have a legitimate chance of sprinting for victory but would need the perfect circumstances to be able to do so as Milan and Merlier are not your average sprinter.
Phil Bauhaus, Paul Penhöet, Alberto Dainese, Dylan Groenewegen, Arnaud Démare, Alexis Renard, Cees Bol, Pavel Bittner and Israel duo Pascal Ackermann and Jake Stewart can certainly be in there and within the right scenario they should always be in the fight for the very top spots. It’s the third week of the Tour and so there are a lot of variables to take into consideration and not just their average positioning and sprinting ability.
Prediction Tour de France 2025 stage 17:
*** Jonathan Milan, Tim Merlier
** Kaden Groves, Arnaud de Lie
* Biniam Girmay, Danny van Poppel, Phil Bauhaus, Alberto Dainese, Dylan Groenewegen, Pavel Bittner, Pascal Ackermann, Jake Stewart
Pick: Tim Merlier
How: The finale won’t be technical and I think Merlier will be able to have good positioning. The tailwind sprint doesn’t favour one over the other but I just have the feeling Merlier takes it.
Original: Rúben Silva