21.7 kilometers at 5%, but the average does not tell the story of the Col du Glandon in any way. It’s a climb with two descents and it features several kilometers at around 10%. An inconsistent climb where pure climbers can make the difference but we can also see a lot of tactical racing. If the breakaway goes here we may have a very strong group up the road. But even here a few riders can try to bridge across to riders who attacked earlier in the day.
The second ascent is much more constant: the Col de la Madeleine. 19.3 kilometers at 7.8% is simply brutal, a climb that doesn’t let you rest at any point. It will end with 67 kilometers which means that serious attacks aren’t likely, but the descent will be very fast and it can contribute a lot to the damage on the final ascent.
Actually, it is not the side that has been climbed over the past editions, it’s a different ascent into Courchevel which is over 26 kilometers long and will be a brutal finale. It’s 26.3 kilometers at 6.4%, an hour-long ascent, rather constant for the first 20 kilometers, and then with a few irregular ramps all the way to the summit. Some flat and even downhill sections, but also a lot of ramps at over 10% where you can’t really get into a rhythm. Â
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2025 stage 18
The weather changes, and we lose the summery France to enter the rainy weather. Today was already evidence that currently in Eastern France the weather conditions aren’t the best. Heavy rain isn’t in the forecast but there will be some cold temperatures and rain to add to the mix.
The Favourites
Jonas Vingegaard – Visma have to do it. This is not the last day, but it’s THE day where they can do the most damage. The start is very hard and they will want to have many riders out front, an absolute must. Van Aert, Campenaerts, Benoot and Jorgenson will certainly all be amongst moves to try and be in front right away and put the team on numerical advantage to prepare a latter attack. Visma have seen that with good work, they can rather isolate Pogacar in the long climbs and will want to do that at some point. Glandon is hard and can be attacked.
But on the Col de la Madeleine we could see an attack from Vingegaard, if he has the same legs as on Mont Ventoux. His form is incredibly good and if he has a good day, even though the Col de la Loze is brutal, closing 4 minutes is certainly not an easy task for 1 climb. Madeleine is very steep the entire way and it’s an almost hour-long climb which can be used for this. On Col de la Loze the attacks should come either ways, and although Pogacar is the man to beat, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dane gain a little bit of time.
Tadej Pogacar – His task is to defend himself. UAE can put on any tactics they want: No-one in the breakaway, several riders, attack, follow the wheel to the finish, etc… All that matters for Pogacar is to not lose time on the Dane. If he succeeds, he has put himself in the perfect position to win the Tour. But doing so will be a task, this is the most mountainous day of the race and he knows he will have to respond to Visma’s attacks. In 2023 he lost the Tour in this climb, and he will want to take revenge from that day.
GC Fight – Because the stage is so hard, it won’t be easy to see anyone take major risks. The final climb in itself is enough to make minutes-worth of differences depending on how the day goes, and the Top10 has plenty of riders who weren’t expected to be in the fight for the top spots. Florian Lipowitz is perhaps the best of the rest and I expect him to solidify his third spot and white jersey on Loze.
Oscar Onley, Kévin Vauquelin, Tobias Johannessen and Ben Healy will in all honesty have to be happy if they maintain their positions at the end of the day. None of them would’ve expected such a strong position, and certainly it will be about surviving for them all. On the contrary we have Primoz Roglic (5th) who doesn’t ordinarily thrive in such days but is in terrific form, he can move up Onley’s position even if support Lipowitz; and then 7th and 10th spots Felix Gall and Carlos RodrÃguez who are pure climbers with good track records at the Tour who can take advantage of this colossal day.
Breakaway – Such a stage, and with such a GC fight likely to happen, means that only a very select few can even dream of taking the win. I rate the breakaway’s chances as low, but on paper you always have to consider. Thymen Arensman, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Lenny MartÃnez, Santiago Buitrago, Sergio Higuita, Aleksandr Vlasov, Michael Woods, Harold Tejada and Michael Storer are men to eye. But they will need some luck.
Prediction Tour de France 2025 stage 18:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard
** Florian Lipowitz, Santiago Buitrago, Thymen Arensman
* Primoz Roglic, Oscar Onley, Felix Gall, Carlos RodrÃguez, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Ilan van Wilder, Lenny MartÃnez, Aleksandr Vlasov, Michael Woods
Pick: Jonas Vingegaard
How: I actually do think, after that monstrous Ventoux performance, that Vingegaard may have a bit more legs on the final climb than Pogacar. I don’t think the jersey changes hands, but I genuinely believe the Dane can take the win.
Original: Rúben Silva