After two places in the Dunhill Links, Ben Coley continues his search for a winner in the Open de Espana – where Sergio Garcia earns the headline vote.

Golf betting tips: Open de Espana

2pts e.w. Sergio Garcia at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Alejandro del Rey at 80/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Jose Luis Ballester at 90/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Angel Hidalgo at 175/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Freddy Schott at 250/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Robert MacIntyre brushed aside concerns over a Ryder Cup hangover last week, producing a hair-of-the-dog masterclass on home soil, and many punters will be hoping Jon Rahm can keep the party going by capturing a fourth Open de Espana title.

Back in 2012, European golfers made hay after the Miracle at Medinah, with Peter Hanson, Ian Poulter, Henrik Stenson, Justin Rose and Rory McIlroy all victorious before the end of the year. To what extent this was connected to a famous Sunday in Chicago who really can say, but elite golfers playing with house money having already made it a successful season are always going to be dangerous, Rahm included.

Shane Lowry is the only other Ryder Cup player here and having in effect holed the putt that ended an American fightback, he too should be flying high at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, before McIlroy, Viktor Hovland and Tommy Fleetwood join him next week in India. Some people understandably feel that Ryder Cup chat begins too early in the year. What if it extends through the event and all the way to Dubai?

Rahm’s prospects are obvious. Before a disappointing singles performance he again excelled in New York and his record in Madrid, at a course he didn’t really know prior to his 2019 win, reads 1-17-1-9-2. Twice he’s been turned over at odds-on in-play, but while they’re hardly rolling in it there’s no denying that backers of his in this tournament, who also collected in 2018 let’s not forget, are comfortably winning the argument.

Those three titles put Rahm level with his idol Seve Ballesteros and a fourth would be extra special at the end of a year which so far hasn’t actually yielded tournament silverware. Yes, he somehow won the LIV Golf individual title before his team won that event, too, but he’s not won a tournament on his own. That’s something Rahm may only have one more chance to address and there’s a strong chance he does so.

With fellow LIV players David Puig and Joaquin Niemann also likely to enjoy the test offered by Club de Campo, where scoring on three short par-fives and the driveable 18th makes driver and three-wood such key clubs, the top of the market is strong.

However, I do wonder whether SERGIO GARCIA is being underestimated a little and he’s a good bet either in the standard outright market, or without Rahm if you prefer.

Garcia is very much up to contending for this title based on the way he’s been playing lately.

No, he’s not been good enough to merit inclusion in the European Ryder Cup side, not even close, but form figures of 10-21-17-17 on the LIV Golf circuit and 34th in the Open suggests he’s back close to the levels we saw at the beginning of this year, when he very much was playing to a level which could’ve forced Luke Donald into a difficult decision.

A spring and early-summer lull, which included missing the cut on a rare DP World Tour start in Germany, ended all that but Garcia has been hitting the ball much better since, particularly on his last individual start in Indianapolis, and two of his very best driving performances of the season have come within his last four starts.

Ultimately, there’s enough to suggest his game is getting sharper all the time and, back in Spain, that’s all I need to believe prices in this region are generous. It’s not just that he was seventh here in 2019, when yes he’d won on his previous start but his season in general had been poor, he’s also on a run of top-10 finishes on home soil which stretches back to 2016, a total of eight events.

This includes his first LIV Golf win at his beloved Valderrama, the most recent of eight professional victories on home soil, and I would be disappointed if he can’t still prove competitive here in Madrid, especially now that he’s produced something tangible away from the LIV Golf circuit via his best US Open result in almost a decade last summer, then a respectable T34 at Portrush.

Garcia might also want to prove a point here having seemingly felt that he did merit inclusion in the Ryder Cup side, and I feel he’s the one player towards the top of this market who is being underestimated. You won’t find many bigger fans of Angel Ayora than me but, for now, the idea that his chance is equal to that of a Spanish golfing legend still well up to winning titles seems a little silly.

They were 20/1 and 50/1 respectively in Germany and while Ayora’s star continues to rise, remember Garcia was in poor form back then. Now, he’s heading in the right direction, he’s proven at the course, and he’s one we know won’t be afraid to take on Rahm should it come to it. I’d happily back him without the favourite at 25s or with him at 33s and even bigger with some smaller firms.

It’s worth noting at this point that Spaniards have a collectively brilliant record in this event. The statistic that best sums this up is that of the 15 players to have teed off in the final group since the Open de Espana came to Club de Campo, nine were Spanish. Sixty percent of contenders from 20 percent of the field is resounding and as well as a Spanish 1-2-3 in 2019, two of four subsequent renewals ended in all-Spanish play-offs.

Ayora could certainly be the latest but he did stall when hitting the front in Mallorca late last year and to win this so young would be enormously impressive, so I’m inclined to scan further down the betting. In doing so, I want to be siding with powerful drivers at a course which allows such players to attack, as we’ve seen with the likes of Zander Lombard, Sean Crocker, Grant Forrest and Wilco Nienaber.

Next then is ALEJANDRO DEL REY, one of the longest hitters on the DP World Tour and a breakthrough winner at the beginning of the year.

Since then, Del Rey has largely struggled but he caught the eye with an excellent second round at Wentworth (67), where his iron play was noticeably improved, and was then undone by the draw in the Dunhill Links. Del Rey finished 21st overall but that was fifth on his rotation, comfortably the toughest of the three.

Ultimately he was undone by a brutal hour at Carnoustie but his first round at St Andrews was excellent, one lone bogey coming after he found a pot bunker off the tee, and he closed out nicely at Kingsbarns for his best finish since Singapore. Both the Dunhill Links and Singapore Classic favour long drivers, as does Al Hamra where he finally broke through, and I’d say this course isn’t far behind them in that regard.

We’ve seen del Rey play well here on both starts as a DP World Tour member, first when 17th and then when 18th a year ago. His driving was imperious in both (fourth and third in strokes-gained off-the-tee) and backers have been left to rue two poor putting weeks, the only thing keeping him from placing and perhaps even threatening to win.

That club has been better lately with five positive performances in seven since the beginning of July and his form coming in is similar to that of the last two seasons. The only difference now is that he can call himself a DP World Tour champion and come the crunch, that might count for a lot. He’s certainly well up to contending providing his putter behaves and anything 66/1 and upwards is worth taking.

Todd Clements and Richard Mansell both caught my eye and it might be tempting to have them on-side in a top Englishman market which will be headed by Marco Penge. Both have course form and Clements in particular is striking the ball well, while his winning form in Spain as an amateur adds to the appeal. Mansell, as ever, will threaten the top 10 if he putts to a good standard, which he has on both visits here so far.

But sticking with the Spanish theme, I’ll take on board the obvious risks with the raw powerhouse JOSE LUIS BALLESTER.

Winner of the US Amateur last summer, Ballester is a serious prospect and one who was a natural fit for LIV Golf and its strong Spanish core, largely because he’s coached by Garcia’s dad. He also went to college at Arizona State, like Rahm and Phil Mickelson, and it didn’t surprise anyone when he signed for the operation in June.

After a predictably slow start, he performed better back on home soil at Valderrama despite that course not being made for his phenomenal power, then finished seventh and second at the events held in England and Chicago. Notably, both suited big hitters, Niemann beating Bubba Watson in one, Dean Burmester edging a play-off against Ballester and Rahm in the other.

He’s not been so good on one subsequent solo start nor seemingly at the team final, but volatility is part of the deal and one thing I’m sure of is that this course will suit him down to the ground. He didn’t quite show that last year but was still an amateur and now, having shown up well on a PGA Tour start at another course made for long drivers, I expect much better.

Ballester could bomb out completely but after the similar Puig contended last year, I don’t think anyone should be surprised if he proves up to it. Those two top-10s on the LIV circuit are tangible evidence of that and the common theme is a course where he can open his shoulders and get on the attack, which is certainly true of Club de Campo.

He’s 90/1 with eight places or you can get 80s with another couple.

Worth another Schott

It’s this type of player who made up my shortlist, with pocket rocket Tom Vaillant, in-form Mikael Lindberg and course fit Crocker all tempting enough but FREDDY SCHOTT ultimately preferred.

For a while on Sunday it looked like the German might secure playing status for next year with a top-five finish at the Dunhill Links, but after a late wobble he has to settle for at least moving inside the cut-off on the Race to Dubai.

He’ll be further comforted by the fact that it was his performance in Scotland which helped him to sneak into this field and, with so many of those fighting for status again unable to get a start, this is a massive chance for the German to edge further away from them and perhaps even take care of business.

Certainly, it’s a great course for him as he showed when 13th last year, ranking second in strokes-gained off-the-tee. That performance came after a back-to-form top-20 finish in the Irish Open but this time he has two of those, having also played well in France prior to his effort in the Dunhill Links.

Another of the very longest hitters here, Schott should also realise that he may not get into the field in India next week, where a very tight course would be against him anyway, and his lowly category could in fact mean this is his final chance as he’s no certainty to be in the field in Korea, either.

He could respond to that in one of two ways but, with his game having turned a corner, he’s the pick of the outsiders at 250/1 generally. At the time of writing, Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair have that price to 10 places.

Finally, I just have an inkling that the fiery, passionate ANGEL HIDALGO could be the type to revel in the role of defending champion.

He’s walked the walk having downed Rahm last year and while largely quiet since, he did also play very nicely in the Andalucia Masters (20th), the same event in which he’d been fourth in 2022 to salvage his playing rights. That’s three very good efforts on home soil in his last six and another really wouldn’t shock me.

Last week’s Dunhill Links doesn’t worry me at all as he’s now played that event three times without so much as cracking the top 100, and the best golf he’s played since becoming a DP World Tour winner came in August (13th at the British Masters) and September (third at the Irish Open), latterly contending in a tournament won by Rory McIlroy.

A decent BMW PGA Championship followed and if we ignore last week’s effort, which I think we should, then there are reasons to be optimistic at 100/1 and bigger. Hopefully he’s in a marquee grouping and justifies my view that he won’t let go of this title without a fight.

Posted at 1800 BST on 06/10/25

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