The Ministry of Economy forecasts Ukraine’s GDP growth at 2.5% next year, despite the World Bank lowering its projection to 2%.

This was stated by Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture Oleksii Sobolev during a government Q&A session, according to an Ukrinform correspondent.

“The World Bank had previously assumed the war would end this year, which led to higher growth expectations for 2026. As those assumptions are revised, the growth forecast is adjusted to more realistic levels. The Ministry of Economy maintains its projection of approximately 2.5% growth next year,” Sobolev said.

He added that preliminary estimates show Ukraine’s GDP rose by roughly 5.3% in August 2025 compared to August 2024, driven by increased activity in construction, manufacturing, and agriculture.

Read also: World Bank downgrades Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for 2026

“In the second half of this year, we expect accelerated growth. This will distinctly set us apart from Russia, where economic expansion is slowing month by month and is projected to reach nearly zero. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s economy is expected to grow by 3–4% in September and October,” Sobolev noted.

As previously reported by Ukrinform, the World Bank has maintained its 2025 growth forecast for Ukraine at 2%, but downgraded its 2026 projection to 2.2%—a 3.2 percentage point drop compared to its June estimate.

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