It’s now four weeks since Leinster boss Leo Cullen delivered his wounding September 16 medical update on Hugo Keenan, the full-back who clinched Test series victory for the British and Irish Lions in Australia.
What happened in the final minute of the July 26 match versus the Wallabies in Melbourne stitched the 29-year-old Irishman into Lions history.
Taking a pass from Jamison Gibson-Park, he ignored the outside support of Jack Conan and instead backed himself to use his pace to beat Len Itikau. Cue the delirium of a series win with a match to spare.
Keenan played the full 80 minutes for the Lions in the tour-ending third Test against Australia in Sydney on August 2, but that appearance was followed 38 days later by the revelation that instead of preparing for the new season with Leinster, he had undergone an operation that will sideline him until 2026.
“Basically owning the No.15 shirt…”
“Hugo Keenan had surgery post the Lions tour on his hip. He probably won’t feature until the new year. Exactly what point, I’m not sure yet,” said Cullen about the development that has created a selection teaser for Ireland boss Andy Farrell ahead of their November 1 match versus the All Blacks in Chicago.
Farrell names his tour squad for that match in America at 4pm this Wednesday, accelerating the countdown towards an international fixture that has a special place in Irish hearts, as it was in Chicago in 2016, just weeks after the tragic passing of Anthony Foley, that they secured their first-ever Test win over the All Blacks.
Having been promoted from backs coach after the 2019 Rugby World Cup to take charge following Joe Schmidt’s departure, Farrell selected the uncapped Keenan for the 2020 autumn resumption of the pandemic-delayed Six Nations and he quickly became a nailed-on starter.
Before going on this year’s Lions, Keenan had started in 46 of the 56 matches that Ireland played between October 2020 and March 2025, basically owning the No.15 shirt in that time (including this year’s Six Nations with Simon Easterby as interim head coach).
With Keenan now sidelined, though, Farrell must change tack for the four-match November programme that begins against the All Blacks and then features matches in Dublin against Japan, Australia and South Africa. Here is our in-depth look at the options available:
Front runner: Jamie Osborne
Ireland have been blessed with the longevity of their full-backs in the modern era. Girvan Dempsey was Eddie O’Sullivan’s man. Then came Rob Kearney, who was glued into the shirt under Declan Kidney and Schmidt, before Keenan became Farrell’s must-pick.
Bar his switch to sevens for the 2024 Olympics and niggly injuries here and there, Keenan has been the player in possession, but there should be no cause for panic with Farrell’s first-choice pick now hobbled.
Few would have predicted that Osborne would so snuggly fit into the jersey. His breakthrough at Leinster came in the midfield but with Keenan heading to Paris in July last year, Farrell staked his reputation on the youngster seamlessly transitioning from club centre to Test-level full-back.
Osborne didn’t look out of place in that drawn series in Pretoria and Durban, and he has ably filled that same jersey since then against Fiji and Wales. After a mid-tour Lions call-up, he returned last Saturday to make his first appearance of the season for Leinster and needed just 11 minutes to score a try versus the Sharks.
With that performance, the soon-to-be 24-year-old looks very much to be in pole position to run onto Soldier Field wearing the Ireland No.15 jersey.
In the mix: Jimmy O’Brien, Jacob Stockdale
Paul O’Connell, the interim Ireland coach in July with Easterby away on Farrell’s Lions tour, chose O’Brien as his No.15 for the two-game tour to Georgia and Portugal. The soon-to-be 29-year-old didn’t disappoint in a role he hadn’t started in since an August 2023 pre-World Cup win over Samoa.
He had come into that assignment in Tbilisi and Lisbon having started the United Rugby Championship final win over the Bulls at full-back with Osborne, a midfielder starter in the semi-final victory over Glasgow, only making the bench.
Before Osborne’s return to the starting line-up last weekend, O’Brien was also the Leinster full-back on their ill-fated two-match trip to South Africa, where deflating losses were accumulated against the Stormers and the Bulls in the opening two rounds of the 2025/26 URC.
O’Brien was switched to the wing against the Sharks and while he scored a try, the way Leinster went with their selection provided evidence that Osborne is leading the Test selection charge at full-back.
Elsewhere on the provincial scene last weekend, Stockdale, who began the season on the Ulster wing, impressed as Richie Murphy’s No.15 in their Belfast dismissal of the Bulls, and the hope will be that his progress doesn’t suffer the same misfortune as last year.
In November 2024, Stockdale came into the autumn series having shown flashes of the brilliance that made him an instant star on the Ireland wing in 2018. However, his selection against Fiji for his first Test appearance in 15 months ended in frustration as he pulled a hamstring. He then injured an AC joint when he was next selected to play, against Georgia in July.
While those caps have come on the wing, he is an emergency full-back option if the Leinster pair ahead of him in the queue pull up lame.
Outside bet: Mack Hansen
Rookie Sean Naughton has been Stuart Lancaster’s preferred No.15 since his summer arrival in Galway, naming the 21-year-old for the URC matches that were played against Benetton and Cardiff.
However, the winger Hansen, who has yet to make his club return following his involvement with the Lions, remains a full-back option if Farrell is forced into testing the flexibility of his back-three.
Hansen, for instance, started at full-back when Connacht hosted Munster at McHale Park last March, and it was suggested that this versatility to play several positions was a reason for his Lions selection. The thing is, we have no 2025/26 form from him to go on yet.
Of the other Irish full-backs who have started at some stage across the opening three rounds of the new URC, Ulster’s Michael Lowry hasn’t featured with Ireland since 2022 whereas you have to go back to 2019 for Mike Haley’s last cap, even though he is still the Munster first-choice and started against Scarlets and Edinburgh in recent weeks.