Stage 18 of the 2025 Tour de France is an absolute monster of a day. With a trio of HC climbs, finishing on the Col de la Loze, it’s the biggest chance Jonas Vingegaard has to overturn his 4:15 deficit to Tadej Pogacar in the general classification.Whilst Pogacar has been a match to everything thrown at him by Vingegaard and Team Visma | Lease a Bike so far this Grand Tour, 1996 Tour de France winner Bjarne Riis feels stage 18 could be different. “There is really only one thing to do: make the race hard and kill Pogacar early,” Riis begins his analysis for BT.dk. “That requires Visma to put on the gloves and work as a team. If Pogacar is to be broken, it will require a great team effort, for Jonas to tire Pogacar and ride him away. It’s just about getting out there.
“On Thursday it will be crucial to have the right mindset . Jonas knows what it takes, but he must not be afraid of losing,” Riis continues. “He must think that it will hurt. But that he is the one who will hurt the others. Jonas has to believe it and do what he did on Mont Ventoux. He just has to ride earlier. He has to run for the fences, because there’s nothing to turn around for. There’s no risk of him being caught from behind, because no one is anywhere near as good as him. It’s all in.”
As mentioned by Riis, key to any plan Vingegaard has will be a strong showing from his Visma teammates, something that hasn’t always been a guarantee this Tour. “Visma will see if they can get a couple of guys into the breakaway, and if so, UAE will probably do the same. However, it is not a given that this can be done, because it requires that Jonas’ teammates are allowed to ride. It is Pogacar and UAE who hold all the cards in their hands,” Riis says. “His task is very clear: He must follow Jonas and not lose four minutes over the next two days.”
“It sounds obvious, but when you go cold on such wild climbs as the peloton hits on Thursday, you go cold. Pogacar just doesn’t look like someone who does that, and if he lets go of Jonas, it’s not a given that he’ll lose four minutes,” Riis adds.
Vingegaard tested Pogacar on Mont VentouxÂ
As the actual tactics of Visma, Riis urges them to go early. “Jonas will have to hope that Matteo Jorgenson, Adam Yates and Sepp Kuss have the legs to put some serious pressure on the second climb of the day, Col de la Madeleine. I would immediately start to speed up after 5-7 kilometers. Maybe even sooner depending on the situation,” says the Dane. “Here Visma will put pressure on and see if they can get Pogacar into a state of crisis. Pressure him so that he doesn’t eat and drink what he needs. Visma will stress him with high pace and accelerations, because that’s the kind of thing that’s needed to break him. The goal should be to isolate him.”
“The Col de la Madeleine is tough and a hell of a climb. It’s long and confusing, and if Pogacar is already feeling fatigue there, it’s going to be a huge mental task for him. Because from there it’s still an incredibly long way home, and that’s where you break down,” Riis continues. “The final climb speaks for itself. The Col de la Loze is long, grueling and will be the finale of a disgusting day. And this is probably where Jonas can put the knife in on Pogacar. It will be the strongest who wins. Man against man.”
“Overall, it’s all about accumulated fatigue at the end of the Tour, and therefore anything can happen on these types of stages,” concludes the former Maillot Jaune. “I’m looking forward to seeing how it all plays out.”