Under the triple lock, the state pension is set to rise by July’s bumper earnings-growth figure , it has been confirmed

The state pension will rise by 4.8 per cent next April after September’s inflation figure was confirmed as 3.8 per cent on Wednesday.

Under the triple-lock mechanism, the state pension increases every April by whatever is the highest – the previous September’s inflation figure, annual earnings growth, or 2.5 per cent.

The earnings growth figure was confirmed as 4.8 per cent earlier this month, and this is now set to be the relevant figure because September’s inflation number is lower.

The Government has committed to honouring the triple lock until at least 2029, and will confirm the figure at next month’s Budget.

It means the full new state pension should increase from £230.25 per week to £241.30 per week in April 2026.

This is a rise of £574.60 a year to £12,547.60.

The full basic state pension should increase from £176.45 per week to £184.90 per week – or £9,614.80 annually.

Had the triple lock been pegged to today’s inflation figure, pensioners would have seen their full new state pension increase from £230.25 to £239 a week.

The basic state pension is given to men born before 6 April, 1951, and women born before 6 April, 1953, with those born after these dates getting the new state pension.

Not everyone gets the full payment, as the amount depends on how many years you paid national insurance (NI) or received NI credits.

It also means most benefits will rise by the 4.8 per cent inflation rate next April, something that is likely to be finalised in the Budget.

However the increase for pensions means that the full new state pension will be very close to the personal allowance – the earnings threshold over which income tax is due.

The full new state pension will be worth around £12,548 from April, whereas the personal allowance is £12,570.

Adam Cole, retirement specialist at Quilter, said: “With the personal allowance frozen until at least 2028, we’re approaching the point where even those receiving only the full new state pension could become liable for income tax.

“By April 2027, a minimum 2.5 per cent annual uplift means many pensioners may start receiving tax payment requests via simple assessment (if they don’t have PAYE income). This will come as a surprise to many who might never have had to go through a process like this.”

Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, said: “Next April’s rise will put the state pension above £12,000 for the first time and within inches of the frozen personal allowance.

“This poses a significant conundrum for Rachel Reeves and the Treasury. If, as is expected, the triple lock sees the state pension increase above the personal allowance of £12,570 in April 2027.

“Pensions minister Torsten Bell recently ruled out scrapping the triple lock guarantee, but as the state pension grows ever closer to the frozen personal allowance threshold, it could be that the Government is finally forced to address the question of how much the state pension should really offer, at what age, and how it can increase payments sustainably each year.”

The personal allowance has been frozen for several years – with the freeze initiated by the Conservative government.

It previously rose in line with inflation, but is not set to do so again until 2028.

There has also been some speculation that the Government could extend the freeze until 2030.

In the run-up to last year’s general election, the Conservative Party promised to increase the tax-free allowance for pensioners in line with the existing triple lock to ensure it rises each year.

But Labour refused to match the pledge.

Experts have called to reform to the triple lock, with Quilter saying the state pension should be pegged to a fixed minimum proportion of average earnings.

Cole said: “The pension should continue to be uprated with earnings, but with temporary CPI indexation when inflation exceeds wage growth. The CPI indexation would continue until earnings growth again exceeded inflation, but only for as long as the value of the state pension remained above the original fixed minimum proportion of average earnings, at which point indexation would revert to earnings.”