Greece once again ranks among the champions of European budget surpluses, according to Eurostat data for 2024: It had the fourth highest surplus, while on average the EU and the eurozone were in deficit.
In recent years, Greece has not only consistently had a positive budget balance and primary surpluses, but has also systematically exceeded the target of each budget. In 2024 the overshoot was impressive: From a primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP foreseen in the year’s budget, it reached 4.8% of GDP.
For 2025, the target has already been revised from a primary surplus of 2.4% of GDP, which was foreseen in the 2025 budget, to 3.6% of GDP, according to the 2026 draft budget. Estimates have been made that it may eventually reach 4% of GDP, but this will be seen next year.
These overperformances have raised concerns whether it would be appropriate to lower the surplus bar a little, so that the government can increase public spending – e.g. public investments or benefits for the weaker sections of society, or even proceed with broader tax exemptions. After all, primary surpluses are to some extent a result of inflation and the non-indexation of the tax rates.