Our chocolate, coffee and oats have been getting smaller for years

Over the years, prices have gone up as products have got smaller. Experts examine how long the trend can continue

Household staples including toothpaste, coffee, chocolate bars and medicines are all being hit by “shrinkflation” – yet experts say this can’t carry on forever.

A new study by Which? found prices have risen by as much as 236 per cent per 100g for some items as a result of food production costs rising significantly.

This has left supermarkets looking for ways to avoid taking a hit to their profits without having to noticeably increase their prices.

Instead, one of the most popular methods has been to reduce the size or weight of items without changing the price, known as shrinkflation.

New FeatureIn ShortQuick Stories. Same trusted journalism.

Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “Food manufacturers are facing price pressures, from everything like rising wages to higher prices for ingredients. There’s only so long they can continue before profits take too much of a hit.

“Big name brands for everyday essentials have a challenge, because if they raise prices too far, it becomes significantly more expensive than own-brand alternatives, so shoppers may trade down.

“Jumping on the shrinkflation bandwagon allows them to stick to key price points without eating any further into profit margins.”

Which? has found a number of household staples have hugely reduced in size over time, while prices have actually risen.

Two items that have seen ‘shrinkflation’ in supermarkets, according to Which? – KitKat chocolates and Aquafresh toothpaste

In one example, it found that Aquafresh Complete Care original toothpaste has increased from £1.30 for 100ml to £2 for 75ml at Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Ocado – a 105 per cent increase per 100ml.

Chocolate has also been hit by rising cocoa prices, which has led to brands like Cadburys shrinking their chocolate bars.

Earlier this year, Cadburys reduced its “little bars” multipack from six bars to four bars, while keeping the price the same.

Quality Street tubs have also reduced in size from 600g to 550g while prices have risen. At Morrisons, a tub has increased from £6 to £7, despite getting smaller.

In the worst example from Which?, Sainsbury’s Scottish Oats have shrunk from 1kg to 500g while the price has increased from £1.25 to £2.10, equating to a 236 per cent rise per 100g.

Before and after – the size of Quality Street has shrunk and it has become more expensive

Why do brands get away with shrinkflation?

In the past, examples of shrinkflation used to spark outrage, with shoppers taking to social media to post examples – and some people even actively boycotting guilty brands.

A report by Barclays in 2023 found two thirds of shoppers had noticed shrinkflation, and 20 per cent said they had actively switched away from brands offering downsized products.

Comments online would suggest shoppers are still outraged. On a Reddit thread about the latest Which? research, one poster said: “We’re being absolutely rinsed, while the increases are so far beyond inflation.”

Another said: “The thing I hate more about shrinkflation is being lied to about it. A reseller should be upfront and transparent to the customer, not try to hide the change via deceptive practises.”

However, experts say that in reality, shoppers have grown so used to shrinkflation that they have “reduced their expectations”, which allows brands to continue to get away with it.

Jack Shaw, a retail expert at e-commerce company Shawfire, said: “A few years ago, getting fewer crisps in the same packet might have sparked outrage.

“But now, most shoppers simply sigh and move on because they’ve grown so accustomed to price hikes and product downsizing.

“Psychologically, we adjust by reducing our expectations and not switching brands. We convince ourselves that ‘everything’s smaller now’, and carry on buying out of convenience or habit.”

What is the future for shrinkflation?

Coles said she does not think we have seen the end of shrinkflation for this reason, particularly as it is now hitting items like toothpaste, which consumers may be less likely to notice than everyday food items.

She said: “For products like toothpaste, which we tend to buy less often, it’s much easier for companies to make a change without shoppers spotting it, so shrinkflation goes under the radar.

“It means this may not be the last of the shrinkflation in the supermarkets.”

The problem with shrinkflation as a tactic, though, is that it cannot physically go on for ever. At some point, items will so small that they aren’t profitable to make.

Experts say that shops and brands are aware of this and are beginning to look for other ways to cut production costs, such as reducing the number of products they offer or changing recipes to include cheaper ingredients.

Vineta Bajaj, chief financial officer at Holland and Barrett, told The i Paper: “Shrinkflation has reached its practical limit. Manufacturers can’t keep cutting pack sizes without damaging value perception or risking customer loyalty.

“The cost of redesigning packaging and reconfiguring production lines often outweighs any savings made by reducing contents further. We’re unlikely to see a future where everything is miniaturised, as it stops being profitable long before that point.”

She added: “The next phase will focus on transparency and efficiency rather than subtle reduction. Brands are likely to opt for open price increases, smaller product ranges, or recipe reformulation to manage costs.

“Some will streamline operations by concentrating on their strongest-performing lines instead of constant repackaging.”

Shaw added that he thinks long-term resentment among shoppers is quietly building, and brands will lose customer loyalty long-term.

“Shoppers’ disillusionment will finally reach a tipping point. For brands to preserve credibility in an era of shrinking value, transparency may be the only solution going forward,” he added.