Sir Charlie Mayfield was commissioned to write his report on long-term sickness when Sir Keir Starmer’s government was promising a welfare “revolution”.
Published on Wednesday, it is devastatingly clear about the social and economic damage being inflicted by the failure to control the surge in sickness claims. His report puts a figure on it: £212 billion a year for the economy. And potentially over £1 million of lost earnings for a worker lost to long-term sickness at the age of 22, “with the state incurring a similar cost”.
His report is focused on workplaces, not welfare. As a former chairman of John Lewis, Mayfield was asked to find out what kind of interventions work, how best to help when workers go off long-term sick. How doing so is not just good for the welfare bill and society, but, most of all, for employers.
The point about the £1 million in lost earnings is poignant because some 235,000 under-25s are now claiming long-term sickness benefit, a rise of 80,000 in five years. A scarring effect then kicks in. Someone who has been off for less than a year, Mayfield concludes, is eight times more likely to return to work than someone who has been out for more than two years.
The £212 billion cost, his report says, is equivalent to “nearly 70 per cent of the income tax we pay”, not just through loss to the economy but in welfare payments and NHS costs. His point: stemming this problem could have significant upsides. It could be very worthwhile to identify which techniques help and apply them. Best done in the workplace rather than when someone is in the welfare system.
The UK has come to pride itself not on health outcomes but how smoothly and efficiently people can be dropped into the quagmire of long-term sickness benefit. At the last count it was 5,000 every working day. It happens quickly and cheaply, with a one-hour telephone interview. But what of the long-term cost of writing people off in this way? If it’s even a third of the Mayfield figure — say, £300,000 rather than £1 million — then it makes the case for more active help, not just waving people through to welfare.
Keep Britain Working offers a new way of thinking about the value of people. Not just the fiscal cost of squandered potential but the gains to be had by refusing to give up so easily, and keeping them in the workplace. Better for their health, their family, their community, their prospects, as well as the taxpayer.
“The aim is to rehumanise the workplace,” he concludes. His words are directed mainly at employers. But his report provides a template, waiting to be applied to the welfare state itself.
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