Britain’s World, the Council on Geostrategy’s online magazine, asked whether the United Kingdom can still be called a rising power.

The question follows IMF forecasts suggesting Britain will be the G7’s second fastest-growing economy in 2026 and could overtake Japan by 2030 to become the world’s fifth largest.

Several experts argued that Britain’s global influence remains robust but constrained by persistent domestic weaknesses. Stephen Booth of TheCityUK described the UK as a “leading middle power” rather than a resurgent one, pointing to the country’s economic size, diplomatic reach, and defence partnerships as evidence of continuing relevance—but also warning that structural issues at home could limit its potential.

Others were more bullish. William Freer, of the Council on Geostrategy, suggested that Britain’s decades of “managed decline” might finally be ending, noting forecasts that could see the UK’s GDP overtake Germany’s in the 2030s. Yet, he cautioned that tackling problems such as energy costs and demographic pressures remains essential if any “rise” is to be sustainable.

Some contributors were sceptical of the “rising power” label. Dr Ksenia Kirkham of King’s College London warned against overstating the IMF’s optimism, arguing that the UK lacks the innovation-led growth and investment patterns typical of genuine ascents. She criticised the government’s industrial strategy as incoherent and too narrowly focused on military rearmament.

A more strategic perspective came from James Rogers, the Council’s co-founder, who said Britain’s future strength would depend on its willingness to invest heavily in defence, energy and infrastructure. By doing so, he argued, the UK could become “strategically indispensable” within NATO and the wider Western alliance system.

The article also features contributions from former ministers and defence officials, including Anne-Marie Trevelyan and Peter Watkins, who emphasised the UK’s enduring military, technological, and diplomatic capabilities despite fiscal constraints and regional competition.

Read the full debate at Britain’s World, which explores Britain’s international role and global influence.