The weakness in the UK labor market is likely to have been overstated, economists and policymakers warned, after new figures shifted the narrative in Westminster and financial markets ahead of the budget.

Official data showed unemployment unexpectedly roseBloomberg Terminal 0.2 percentage points to 5% in the three months through September to reach its highest levels since the pandemic. That jump was seized on by both opposition politicians and traders, who ramped up bets on a December interest-rate cut and pushed two-year gilt yields to their lowest in more than a year.