It is a dynamic that is making Australia’s annual temporary migrant intake increasingly unpredictable. As the Coalition challenges Labor over its consistent failure to meet its migration forecasts, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke is returning fire by demanding Opposition Leader Sussan Ley outline where she would make cuts.
“You’re not in a proper policy conversation until you start to say: OK, which visa class? Which category? Because everything you change has an impact,” Burke said this week.
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Ley has promised to bring immigration down – former Coalition leader Peter Dutton had also pledged to cut net migration by 100,000 more people than Labor – and cited working holidaymakers as an area it would have to consider.
“There are many streams representing the different migrants who come here … working holidaymakers, skilled visas, family reunions, humanitarian intake, and of course international students. They all play a role,” Ley said, when pressed on her plans this week.
Limiting working holidaymakers would be unpopular among the Nationals, whose regional seats rely on their labour.
Matthew Heyes, founder of employment site Backpacker Job Board, said there had been a clear surge in the visa class this year, with global economic conditions a driving force.
“Australia has just set a new record for visa grants, and the first quarter suggests we will go even higher,” he said. “We’re seeing issues like the cost of living and stagnant wages motivate young people to make the trip.”
Former Immigration Department deputy secretary Abul Rizvi said the working holidaymaker program was going from strength to strength, particularly since the third-year visa was introduced by the Morrison government.
There were almost 34,000 third-year visas issued to working holidaymakers from all countries last financial year, compared to about 7500 the year before.
“Demand was inevitably going to be strong when we made it more generous, as we did. Australia is popular among Brits, and this is the first year we’ve seen the full effect of the agreement initially negotiated by Scott Morrison,” Rizvi said.
“It will have to peak at some stage, and it depends very much on our labour market – our labour market is certainly strong, and the UK’s is not as strong.”
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Rizvi said working holidaymakers would continue to make a high contribution to net migration as long as policies around the visa were facilitative.
“Both sides of politics have to take that into account when and if they set targets for net migration,” he said.
Rizvi said any changes to working holidaymaker arrangements – which have been made with 50 individual countries – would have to be negotiated with relevant governments, which was unlikely.
“The key tightening change [would be] to withdraw the third visa, other than for Brits, and that would force more to go home earlier and reduce the impact on net overseas migration,” Rizvi said.
“The third visa was implemented without negotiation by the Coalition unilaterally, so it could be withdrawn. That would be the easiest one to implement, and would have a rapid impact on net overseas migration.”
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