We don’t expect pensions to be an important topic in the upcoming elections on 29 October, but this could still change. Whilst politicians almost forced a multi-year delay earlier this year, the political risk has diminished significantly since. The political party behind the proposed rule changes is bound to lose significantly according to recent polls.
If, however, funding ratios fall significantly from current levels, then the topic of pensions would grab a lot more political attention again. Funding ratios below 100% would force pension cuts on transitioning, which would be politically sensitive. But higher interest rates and decent equity performance mitigates this risk for now.
Around half the assets under management still plan to transition on 1 January 2026, but plans can still change. Just recently we had two smaller pension funds postponing their intended transition of the 1st of July 2025. The announcement was made just two weeks before the transition date, which highlights the operational challenges funds face. If the largest fund scheduled for 2026, PFZW with €250bn AUM, would announce a delay we would expect some flattening pressures at the long end of the curve.