I’m going to look at this prediction a little differently.

We sure as hell shouldn’t be analysing which fighter will stand with his hands aloft at the end of the fight. Joshua will win. The real question, for me, is whether both fighters can do enough to come out looking like they have a serious future in boxing.

For AJ, nothing but brutality will suffice. Think about him turning Wladimir Klitschko into a human Pez dispenser with an uppercut from hell. Or perhaps more relevantly, sniping Francis Ngannou so ferociously that his head and knee aligned before he hit the floor. I am willing to allow one round, absolute maximum, before this needs to happen against Paul. 

Joshua is still ridiculed for losing to Andy Ruiz. The Olympic gold medallist never got going that night, but let’s not forget, Ruiz is a quality fighter who has beaten other proven heavyweights. It would be legacy-ending if the same situation happened here.

Paul’s 12-1 pro boxing record is padded with MMA fighters, old men, and old MMA fighters. In 2023, he lost to a Love Island winner while Joshua sent Jermaine Franklin, Robert Helenius and Otto Wallin crashing to the canvas. The boxing community has been unfairly represented in this quest to stop Paul becoming legitimate, so now’s the time it should get serious.

Let’s go back to my original question: What does Jake need to exit this fight with a future in boxing? Honestly, not much at all. Even if Joshua sparks him inside 10 seconds, Paul has the money to draw whoever he wants to the ring. Expect Ngannou somewhere down the line. If Paul loses, he can basically say, ‘So what? That guy is an era-defining fighter’ before moving on to his next bout.

Joshua appears to have Tyson Fury in his sights. It’s years too late, sure, but that remains arguably the biggest fight in boxing. It would take the most embarrassing result in the sport’s history to slow momentum towards the UK showdown. You always feel there’s half a chance AJ can get hurt in his fights, but come on. Only a generational headloss will see that happen here.

Prediction: Joshua to win via 2nd round TKO.