Ben Shelton and Alex de Minaur have both enjoyed successful 2025 campaigns on the ATP Tour.
Shelton reached the Australian Open semi-final in January and the Wimbledon quarter-final in July, while de Minaur recently captured his 10th tour title at the Washington Open.
Both players are set to compete at this week’s Canadian Open in Toronto. Shelton faces Adrian Mannarino in his first match while de Minaur will compete against Francisco Comesana.
De Minaur and Shelton are both young and still have time to capture their first Grand Slam titles. However, two superstars have emerged in the form of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, meaning lower-ranked players will likely have to defeat both players to win a Grand Slam.
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These two top-10 ranked players also hold an unwanted record which spans the 2025 season. This is a record that must change if they hope to win the US Open in August.
Ben Shelton and Alex de Minaur have not beaten a top-10 ATP player in 2025
Neither Ben Shelton nor Alex de Minaur has beaten a top-10 ATP player in 2025.
Both players have had five chances, and they have both lost all five of their respective encounters. This record, which is the worst of any player on tour, does not bode well for the US Open.
Shelton first lost to Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open quarter-finals. He then lost to Alexander Zverev at the BMW Open and later to Carlos Alcaraz at the French Open.
The American was defeated by Zverev again at the BOSS Open, before losing to Jannik Sinner once more in the quarter-finals of Wimbledon.
Alex de Minaur has also struggled against top-10 opponents, despite recently winning the Washington Open.
The ‘demon’ also lost to Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open. He later lost to Carlos Alcaraz at the Rotterdam Open, before losing to Lorenzo Musetti at the Madrid Open.
His woes continued at the Barcelona Open, where he lost to Alcaraz again, before being defeated by Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon quarter-finals.
These two top-10 ranked players simply must improve their record against top-10 players if they are to have any chance of winning the US Open.
Very rarely does a draw open up to benefit lower-ranked players, especially when the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are fit and healthy.
The last time this happened at a Grand Slam was in 2014, when 14th seed Marin Cilic defeated 10th seed Kei Nishikori to win the US Open title. This match saw the lowest set of seeds contest a US Open final since 2002.
Who is most likely to win the US Open?
Ben Shelton and Alex de Minaur have had contrasting success in terms of tournament victories on the ATP Tour. De Minaur is the proud owner of 10, while Shelton has only won two titles; less than the three Luciano Darderi has won.
However, Shelton is the obvious choice in this matter. While de Minaur has demonstrated more consistency over the course of a season, Shelton has regularly performed well on the biggest stages.
De Minaur has never reached the semi-final stage of a Grand Slam, despite numerous quarter-final appearances.
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Meanwhile, Shelton reached the semi-final stage at both the 2024 US Open and the 2025 Australian Open.
Furthermore, Shelton possesses bigger weapons. While de Minaur may be the most agile player we have seen on a tennis court, he does not have a single shot which represents a significant threat against the likes of Jannik Sinner.
Shelton, on the other hand, has a booming forehand and monstrous serve; both of which can be used to trouble higher-ranked opponents at the US Open.