As the sun sets on 2025 and excitement levels ramp up ahead of the imminent return to racing at the Tour Down Under, it is time to ask some key questions ahead of 2026.With the likes of Remco Evenepoel, Olav Kooij, Juan Ayuso and – very soon – Oscar Onley starting new chapters in their careers, there is no shortage of talking points as the peloton embarks on a new season full of hope and expectation.
Kit and sponsorship changes, the pursuit of history, and the drive and determination of some of the sport’s top stars all overlap and come to a head as we outline the main narratives that should keep us glued to our screens over the next 10 months or so.
Is Pogacar capable of winning La Classicissima?
Of course he is, but whether he will is a different matter. In 2025, the World Champion went early, attacking on the Cipressa and taking Mathieu van der Poel and Filippo Ganna with him. Together they crested the summit for a first-ever sub-nine-minute ascent of the Cipressa. But still, that was not enough for Pogacar to win.
In the wake of the race, Pogacar joked with Van der Poel on social media that next year they should try to get over the top of the Cipressa in eight minutes. Perhaps this is what the Slovenian needs to do. After all, a mechanical in the peloton ahead of the climb this year meant Pogacar could not rely on the pacing of his UAE team-mates going onto the Cipressa and instead had to do practically all of the work himself.
With a full train, Pogacar could maybe open up a proper gap and snap the elastic before the Poggio – a climb which is apparently neither long nor steep enough for him to make the difference. This would seem to be the only way Pogacar can win, given the unlikelihood of him coming out on top in a sprint on the via Roma.
‘Pure drama’ as Van der Poel edges Pogacar at Milano-Sanremo – ‘What on earth have we just seen?!’
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So, it is possible – but only if he can strike out with even more authority on the Cipressa. Because even if Mathieu van der Poel is ill or having a bad day, Pogacar will still have to contend with the likes of Mads Pedersen, Ganna, Jasper Philipsen, Kaden Groves and Michael Matthews – all faster finishers than Pogi.
Will Van Aert finally break his cobblestone duck?
When Wout van Aert won his first and only Monument – Milano-Sanremo in 2020 – his big rival Van der Poel had yet to win a major Classic beyond Amstel Gold. Since then, the Dutchman has won eight Monuments – including three Paris-Roubaix and three Tour of Flanders titles – while his Belgian counterpart has top-tenned in all 12 of his but without tasting further glory.
It would have seemed inconceivable five years ago that Van Aert would never win a major cobblestone classic – and yet still the top steps of the Roubaix and Flanders podiums elude him. Now 31, time is running out for Van Aert, a victim of his own litany of injuries as well as the meteoric rise of Pogacar as a classics force, and the corresponding growth of Van der Poel in response.
All cycling fans would love to see Van Aert remove the heavy cobblestone yoke from his shoulders, but most realists know that it will take a lot for him to get the better of those two behemoths.
Belgian Wout van Aert of Team Visma-Lease a Bike pictured in action at Trouée d’Arenberg during the men elite race of the ‘Paris-Roubaix’ one day cycling race, 259,2 km from Compiegne to Roubaix, France, on Sunday 13 April 2025.
Image credit: Getty Images
Who is most likely to infiltrate the Pogacar-Van der Poel duopoly?
If Wout is unable to get the better of Tadej and Mathieu, then who is? Between them, the Slovenian and the Dutchman have won the last nine Monuments and 14 of the last 16. Only Belgians Evenepoel (Liege-Bastogne-Liege in 2020) and Philipsen (Milano-Sanremo in 2024) have broken up their dominance in that sequence.
Denmark’s Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) looks most likely to ruffle their feathers; on his day, the 30-year-old powerhouse is capable of beating them both on the via Roma and in the Roubaix velodrome. Australian duo Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Matthews (Jayco-AlUla) could win a reduced sprint in Sanremo, while Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers) is also knocking on the door.
Ganna could also do the business in Roubaix and perhaps even Flanders – although in those two races it seems increasingly like it would need a miracle for anyone beyond the Big Two to reign supreme. Looking further forward, the key to opening this impenetrable lock could well be found on the person of Van Aert’s team-mate Matthew Brennan, a super-fast finisher who excelled in his maiden Paris-Roubaix last year for Visma-Lease a Bike.
But, for now, all neutral eyes will be on Pedersen to take it to his rivals, while the romantics will be backing Van Aert.
Mads Pedersen celebrates
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Will Vingegaard be hoodwinked by history?
While Evenepoel has not been tempted by the addition of a 40km time trial, at the time of writing, Jonas Vingegaard has not yet announced his programme for 2026. With Pogacar’s dominance in the Tour rudely felt these past two years, Vingegaard may look to take the pressure off his pursuit of the yellow jersey by targeting pink earlier in the season.
Given his rival’s relentless pursuit of history, winning the Giro d’Italia would offer Vingegaard a rare chance to get one over Pogacar by becoming the first current rider to win all three of cycling’s Grand Tours. Should he enter, the 29-year-old would be the overwhelming favourite to ride into Rome with the maglia rosa. But at what cost?
Having ridden the Tour and Vuelta last year, Vingegaard would be putting his body – which is still on the comeback trail from injury – through four consecutive Grand Tours, and that could be devastating for his chances of returning to his 2023 levels. And yet, the Dane may never get a better chance of writing a chapter in the history books that has not already been written by Pogacar.
What’s more, should he skip the Giro and decide to defend his Vuelta crown after racing the Tour, he is setting himself up for some serious psychological damage should he get beaten by Pogacar in both.
Vingegaard discusses rivalry with Pogacar ahead of ‘most special race’
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Can Onley solve Ineos’ power vacuum?
Onley, at the time of writing, has not yet joined Ineos. But the Scottish climber – who finished fourth at last year’s Tour – has not been involved in Picnic PostNL’s winter training camp and everything is pointing towards an imminent move to the British team.
It is a switch that would involve a reported €7 million buyout for Ineos, which represents something of a gamble given the mounting outlays of Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s sporting empire.
But Onley’s arrival would clearly bolster the roster of a squad that has struggled to match the highs of the Team Sky era since the inevitable decline and departure of Messrs Froome and Thomas, and the corresponding spate of injuries that have hampered the progress of Egan Bernal.
With earlier signing Kevin Vauquelin already joining the likes of Bernal and Carlos Rodriguez in the GC engine room, plus Jack Haig joining super domestiques Laurens de Plus and Thymen Arensman, Ineos suddenly have serious depth. Add Onley – a 23-year-old talent with time on his side who has already pushed for a podium place at the Tour – and Ineos might become relevant again.
Is Pogacar’s fifth Tour win a formality?
At this point in time, it seems so. Although we do not yet know what Vingegaard’s programme is, nor how quickly Evenepoel will settle at Red Bull. It would also be folly to make any guarantees without seeing how Pogacar emerges from what will no doubt be a busy spring, as the World Champion focuses on winning the two Monuments that still elude him: Sanremo and Roubaix.
While any decision on Vingegaard’s part to race the Giro would be a tacit admission of his inability to beat his rival on the roads of France in July, the pendulum has swung so much these past two seasons to suggest that even a fully fit Vingegaard would not trouble Pogacar at the Tour.
But we all saw in 2023 how an ill-timed crash had the same adverse effect on Pogacar as the Basque incident had on Vingegaard one year later. Provided he is fit and stays upright in July, Pogacar should logically join Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Miguel Indurain in the clubhouse this summer. But things do not always go to plan or keep to the script.
Tadej Pogacar, Tour de France 2025
Image credit: Getty Images
Will someone finally double up in the Tour de France Femmes?
Since the race was relaunched, we have witnessed a different winner in each of the four editions: Annemiek van Vleuten in 2022, Demi Vollering in 2023, Katarzyna Niewiadoma in 2024 and Pauline Ferrand-Prevot in 2025.
French all-rounder Ferrand-Prevot looked on another planet as she soared to success last time, winning both the Tour and Paris-Roubaix after a six-year hiatus from road racing. It will take something special to beat the 33-year-old this year, and it is also worth remembering that Vollering’s bid was nipped in the bud early on after her big fall in Stage 3.
Vollering, incidentally, has finished runner-up each time she has not won the Tour de France Femmes. Should Ferrand-Prevot not reach her 2025 levels, the Dutch star could well make history.
A similar record is up for grabs at Paris-Roubaix Femmes, which, since returning, has seen five different winners from five different nations: Lizzie Deignan (2021), Elisa Longo Borghini (2022), Alison Jackson (2023), Lotte Kopecky (2024) and Ferrand-Prevot (2025).
Ferrand-Prevot shows ‘she is a superwoman’ after incredible comeback
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Will we witness the completion of a Grand Tour grand slam in 2026?
Four male riders could, in theory, complete the treble this year: Vingegaard, Pogacar, Bernal and Simon Yates. Should the Dane commit to racing the Giro, then he will naturally be the favourite to complete the clean sweep first and become the only current pro rider to do so.
There is no guarantee that Pogacar will race the Vuelta, but should he return to where he made his Grand Tour debut in 2019, then it is likely that he will complete his set. Colombian climber Bernal could, of course, achieve the same feat – but even in the Slovenian’s absence, this would be a tall order for a rider who has struggled to match the form that took him to victories in the Tour in 2019 and the Giro in 2021.
The job looks easier for Vingegaard, but he may not take the bait, which will play into Pogi’s hands.
Finally, there is another outsider to consider: Simon Yates. Should Vingegaard opt to ride the Giro and arrive overcooked at the Tour, Visma’s leadership could be passed over to the Briton, who last year added the Giro title to his Vuelta crown from 2018. His odds would be long, but it is still a possibility, however unlikely.
Official route for the 2026 Vuelta a Espana
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Three and easy for Pogacar in Montreal?
On top of his quest to win all five Monuments and all three Grand Tours, Pogacar could emulate Peter Sagan by securing a third successive year in the rainbow jersey. Having won in both Zurich and Kigali, Pogacar will relish another hilly course in Montreal – although the route may favour more of the out-and-out classics riders rather than the punchy climbers.
A lot will depend on whether Pogacar races the Vuelta after the Tour. But such are his strengths and form, he should be among the favourites either way.
Which big new signing will make the most impact?
Evenepoel is guaranteed to bring Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe wins – but at what cost to the development of Florian Lipowitz and the perpetuation of Primoz Roglic?
Ayuso, likewise, is an exciting addition to the Lidl-Trek roster but comes with not inconsiderable baggage. Will it all spill out over the carousel of the season when the going gets tough? Given Mattias Skjelmose has just prolonged until 2028 and Derek Gee may yet arrive, could there be too many cooks in the Lidl kitchen?
Prising Biniam Girmay away from the Lotto-Intermarche merger to NSN Pro Cycling may prove a shrewd bit of business for the team formerly known as Israel-Premier Tech, while it remains to be seen if Cian Uijtdebroeks, a promising yet brittle talent, can settle better at Movistar than he did at Visma.
Eddie Dunbar and Fred Wright should be welcome additions to Tom Pidcock’s squad at Pinarello-Q36.5, while Kevin Vauquelin – with or without Onley joining the party – should thrive at Ineos.
‘Chapeau!’ – Evenepoel roars home to cap stunning ITT
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Evenepoel probably nicks it, though, given his potential, his current level, and his notoriety. There is a lot at stake for everyone involved, and the Belgian will have his work cut out to prove that the grass is greener at Red Bull than it was at Soudal Quick-Step.
It is still unclear if Evenepoel can properly challenge Pogacar and Vingegaard at the Tour – but he is at least giving himself a better chance by joining a team capable of putting up a fight. Â
Who will be the fastest man on two wheels in 2026?
With 31 wins between them last year, youngsters Brennan (Visma) and Paul Magnier (Soudal Quick-Step) will be champing at the bit to challenge the status quo at the top of the sprinting hierarchy.
The established order should still see Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step), Olav Kooij (Decathlon CMA CGM) and Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) going shoulder to shoulder, with the likes of Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Van Aert (Visma) and Girmay (NSN Cycling Team) popping up regularly.
Of all the moves for sprinters this summer, Kooij’s switch from Visma to Decathlon is the most intriguing. With his path to the Tour de France blocked by the Vingegaard-Van Aert duopoly, and with Brennan fast rising up the ranks, the Dutchman has taken a gamble in joining a French team not renowned for its sprinting.
It makes perfect financial sense for Kooij, given he will receive a whopping €3m per year at his new home. But we all saw how Sam Bennett – himself off to Pinarello-Q36.5 – struggled at Decathlon, so Kooij will have to win over the doubters.
On his day, though, he is one of the fastest and canniest sprinters in the business. That he will finally have the chance to show what he can do at the Tour will make those bunch sprint showdowns in July that little bit more absorbing.
‘Like the devil out of the box’ – Kooij takes Stage 2 with stunning late sprint
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Will Roglic dine at the top table again?
The simple answer is no, since Roglic appears to have agreed to stand aside for new team leader Evenepoel at the Tour and instead focus on winning a fifth Vuelta crown. Should Roglic succeed in his pursuit of the red jersey, he would make history and strengthen his legacy.
But the Tour is the Tour – and in not being there, Roglic is waving a white flag and accepting that his days as a genuine contender against the likes of his countryman Pogacar, his former team-mate Vingegaard and his current team-mate Evenepoel are over.
That said, should Roglic make history and win a fifth Vuelta against a field that includes Pogacar or the defending champion Vingegaard, then it will give him the belief that he could still take the yellow jersey, which would be food for thought for Red Bull – especially if Evenepoel’s own shortcomings come into relief this July.
‘Flying again!’ – Roglic attacks early on queen stage at Tour de France
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Can Tom Pidcock build on his GC breakthrough year?
There is a big difference between finishing third in a Vuelta from a relatively weak field and challenging for honours at the Tour – but notching his first ever Grand Tour podium last September will have considerably boosted Pidcock’s morale and could prove to be his stepping stone to becoming a regular second-tier GC contender.
We still do not know which races Pinarello-Q36.5 will be invited to as wildcards, but given Pidcock’s result in the Vuelta and his team’s strengthening, the former Ineos rider could be making a return to the Tour sooner rather than later.
His characteristics as a rider still make him better suited to hunting stages at the Tour, but a tilt at the maglia rosa should not be discounted for an improving rider still learning the ropes and learning about his capabilities.Â