UPDATE: 2026/01/25 08:02 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN
Mercy Drops More Than $1 Million From Saturday’s $12.6 Million Projections, Still Holds Strong Over Avatar 3
This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold). Scroll down for a full chart and further analysis.
Mercy is set to become the first movie to topple Avatar: Fire and Ash from its position at No. 1. The Timur Bekmambetov movie, which debuted on January 23, follows a detective (Chris Pratt) who has 90 minutes to prove to an AI judge (Rebecca Ferguson) that he did not murder his wife. Mercy reviews have been overwhelmingly negative, earning the sci-fi movie a dismal Rotten Tomatoes score of 21%.
Per Variety, as of Sunday morning, Mercy is projected to conclude its opening weekend with a 3-day total of $11.2 million at the domestic box office. This will be more than enough for it to take No. 1 over Avatar: Fire and Ash (which is dropping more than 50% with a projected haul of roughly $7 million), preventing it from continuing its streak atop the chart into a sixth consecutive week.
2025’s Avatar: Fire and Ash debuted at No. 1 over the weekend of December 19 and held that position through the New Year. Although early projections suggested that 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple would be the first movie to knock it from No. 1, the horror sequel capsized after a strong Friday and ultimately fell below the James Cameron sci-fi movie.
Now that Mercy has stepped into its place, Fire and Ash is officially unable to match the records of the original two Avatar movies, both of which held No. 1 for seven consecutive weeks during their respective runs in 2009 and 2022.
While Fire and Ash has long been showing signs of diminishing returns compared to the previous two installments, it has still grossed more than $1.3 billion, allowing it to become the 24th highest-grossing movie of all time worldwide shortly before its sixth weekend in theaters, during which it could potentially break into the all-time Top 20.
Although Mercy is on track to become the first 2026 release to debut at No. 1, this does not necessarily mean that it is a hit in and of itself.
In fact, this weekend’s overall domestic box office projections of $58.4 million show that it is set to be the lowest-grossing weekend of the year, largely thanks to the dangerous winter storms taking place across much of the United States. Additionally, Mercy reportedly cost $60 million, which could place its estimated break-even point as high as $150 million.
Even though Mercy was able to best Avatar: Fire and Ash, it does not currently seem to be on a trajectory to turn a profit in theaters. If it follows in the footsteps of the recent original sci-fi movie The Creator (which opened with $14.1 million and earned $104.3 million worldwide), it may only be able to climb to about $95 million.
This Weekend’s Domestic Box Office Top 5
Oona Chaplin as Varang flying on a creature in Avatar Fire and Ash
Below, see the full domestic Top 5 chart for the holiday weekend:
#
Title
3-Day Total
Cumulative (Domestic)
1
Mercy
$11.2 million
$11.2 million (weekend 1)
2
Avatar: Fire and Ash
$7 million
$378 million (weekend 6)
3
Zootopia 2
$5.7 million
$401 million (weekend 9)
4
The Housemaid
$4.2 million
$115.4 million (weekend 6)
5
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple
$3.6 million
$20.7 million (weekend 2)
Outside of the Top 2, the only other movement on the chart is 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple falling from No. 2 straight to No. 5 with a brutal 71% drop. While drops of more than 60% aren’t uncommon for the horror genre, which tends to be frontloaded, this puts the movie in a tough position, because its reported $63 million budget could mean that it needs to earn as much as $157.5 million in order to break even in theaters.
The only other movement is the Timothée Chalamet ping pong movie Marty Supreme being knocked back down from the Top 5 after re-entering the chart during its fifth weekend. It has fallen from No. 5 to No. 6, but it dropped a meager 32%, possibly thanks to the fact that its sixth weekend took place immediately after it earned nine Oscar nominations, including one for Best Picture.
Meanwhile, the new horror sequel Return to Silent Hill failed to capitalize on the popularity of the video game series it was adapting, premiering at No. 7 with $3.2 million. This was a relatively small release (1,850 theaters), but its per-screen average of $1,729 is still considerably lower than the debuts of 2006’s Silent Hill ($6,887) and 2012’s Silent Hill: Revelation ($2,735).
Ultimately, it seems unlikely that Mercy will stay at No. 1 during its sophomore weekend, especially if it has a drop of more than 50%, like The Creator’s 55.6%. However, it seems unlikely that Avatar: Fire and Ash will rise back up to reclaim the position, because the upcoming Sam Raimi survival thriller Send Help is tracking to debut well over $10 million, so that title should have an easy path to victory.
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