Here we go again, back on the rollercoaster that is the Six Nations. It is always such an exciting time of the year, one I always look forward to, and there is always a different vibe about this tournament because its interest extends beyond your usual domestic fans. If I’m dropping the kids off on a school run now, suddenly a lot more people are asking about the Six Nations, including people who aren’t normally interested in rugby.
It doesn’t matter what sort of state the game is in, this competition just always generates a lot more hype than your regular rugby. I saw Andy Farrell, Ireland’s head coach, saying the other day that it is always a privilege to be involved, and I still feel that way as a broadcaster. I loved it as a player and I still love calling it now on the television.
As ever when looking to make predictions, I always look at the tournament fixture by fixture and determine a winner for each of them, and having done that for this year’s list I have concluded that it will all come down to France v England in Paris in the final match on the final day. I have them both down to win all four of their games up to that point, but who will win that match? I am not so sure. Let’s see if we can make things a little clearer.
England
England have great depth, which has allowed Borthwick’s squad to win ten matches in a row
ALAMY
OK, if I have to say, I’m going to go with Steve Borthwick’s side as title winners. I’ve said this before, and I know that we’re not meant to bet, but I would back England for the World Cup.
I just look at their squad, and I know that people are saying they have a lot of props injured, but I don’t think that matters. It is almost as if straws are being clutched at just to find a weakness. They have the depth. They remind me a bit of the All Blacks when they used to have a couple of first-teamers missing.
Their bench is so strong and impactful now. I used to talk in these columns about England’s problems in the last 20 minutes of matches, but not any more. It is like watching Bath. Teams stick with them for 50 or 60 minutes, and then the bench arrives and the game runs away. I think, for instance, England have a better bench than France.
They are going to be so hard to beat.
France
France’s game against England on the final day of the tournament is looking like it will be the title decider
DAVID ROGERS/GETTY IMAGES
Antoine Dupont is back, so France are back! Rugby is a team sport, but France are a much better team with Dupont in it.
What will be interesting is how much buy-in there is from the squad when two players like Grégory Alldritt and Gaël Fickou, who have captained them recently, have been left out. Suddenly they’re not even good enough to get picked in the wider squad, and Damian Penaud has been dropped too, apparently because of his defensive frailties. None of us would have expected that 12 months ago.
If there is not that buy-in, is this then going to be one of those classic topsy-turvy, turmoil-type campaigns for France?
Personally I wouldn’t go with Thomas Ramos at No10. He is a top-class player, but he is a No15 for me. I think he struggles defensively at fly half and teams go after him hard. It’s quite obvious to see. So I’d go with Matthieu Jalibert there for that reason.
Ireland
Aki is suspended for the first three games of the Six Nations and Ireland will miss his physicality
TIM CLAYTON/GETTY IMAGES
Third for me. I’ve always looked at the top teams in the world and I think they always have a player who is really physical in their midfield. So, with Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw out, that is hugely significant for Ireland.
They have other players such as Mack Hansen, Hugo Keenan and Andrew Porter missing too, but I am not writing them off for the title because of that. I am doing so simply because I think England and France are generally stronger at this point.
But I am reminded a little of when Wales won the title in 2021. They somehow found a way against expectation, and Ireland could still do that this year. Simon Easterby did a great job last year as interim head coach, but having Farrell back is a huge fillip because he just brings such a different mentality from so many other coaches.
And Ireland do know how to win. I remember Warren Gatland making that point to us with Wales once — that we knew how to win big games, whereas some of our opponents didn’t.
This Six Nations is definitely a case of a distinct top three and the rest, and Ireland are in that top three.
Wales
Tandy is a proud Welshman and wants to connect with the national side’s fans
DAVID ROGERS/GETTY IMAGES
I think they can beat Scotland and Italy at home and therefore finish fourth. It is easy to look at the immediate past and the 73-0 defeat by South Africa in November, but Wales were missing so many players that day and we know they lack depth and that the Springboks have ridiculous depth. It was an anomaly.
Remember that last year Wales ran Scotland and Italy close away from home and were much improved against Ireland in Cardiff. Again, people will remember the 68-14 home thumping by England at the end of the championship, but that just shows the inexperience of the squad.
I have actually been into the Wales camp a couple of times recently. The first time I wasn’t formally invited, I was just there looking at facilities for other reasons, but I was impressed by what I saw. The vibe was not one of a team that had just lost 73-0. It was very upbeat.
I was then asked to go in and speak to the group. I spoke about my experiences regarding leadership, mentality and communication.
I was privileged first to listen to Steve Tandy speak. I always say that one of the hardest things for a coach is to win your team over, but as he was speaking, I was thinking: “I would run through brick walls for this guy.” I just like him. I like what he talks about, what he represents as a proud Welshman.
Wales were beaten 73-0 by South Africa in the autumn, but that result was an anomaly
SIMON KING/PROSPORTS/SHUTTERSTOCK
He talks a lot about connection. He wants to connect with fans, he wants the players to connect with each other, he wants to connect with former players.
And then there are other coaches, such as Matt Sherratt and Danny Wilson — they’ve been in and around the Welsh set-up for a long, long time. It just felt good in there.
Scotland
Scotland’s chances have been talked up in recent years, but faith has been affected after the autumn internationals
DAVID GIBSON/FOTOSPORT/SHUTTERSTOCK
For the first time in a number of years, they are not being talked up. There has always been some hopeful optimism, but it appears that a lot of the faith has gone after the games against New Zealand and Argentina in the autumn.
To win a Six Nations, you have got to string a minimum of four good games together, with a hurdle usually thrown in that has to be overcome. Having five perfect games — as Ireland did when cantering to the grand slam in 2023 — is rare, but I just cannot see Scotland putting four games together. They do not have the consistency.
They have got one big game in them, and they have shown that time and time again, but you look at their fixture list and they are at home to England and France, which will both be very tough to win, and they have their nemesis Ireland away, so you are left with Wales and Italy away — and I’m backing Wales to win one of them.
It will be a tough campaign for them, even if they can fall back on the form of Glasgow Warriors, who are top of the United Rugby Championship and have won all their games in Europe. I think they will still finish fifth.
Italy
They are similar to Wales in lacking depth, and they have been hit hard by injuries to the likes of Tommaso Allan, Ange Capuozzo, Gianmarco Lucchesi, Sebastian Negri, Jacopo Trulla and Ross Vintcent. You also look at their fixture list, with only two home games — against England, whom they have never beaten, and Scotland — and you do fear the worst for them.
I don’t want to be too harsh on them, because they have definitely improved in recent times, but I do think that unless they can beat Scotland in that first game, it is going to be a long tournament for them. Sixth for me.