Meeting Labour MPs at Chequers on Thursday night as part of his charm offensive, Sir Keir Starmer was “full of bonhomie” that seemed curiously at odds with his party’s bleak political fortunes.
Representatives from Yorkshire and the Humber and the north east arrived at the prime minister’s estate in Buckinghamshire with friends, families and staff for an evening of rice, chilli and wine. It felt more like a last supper than a political reset. Starmer spent the evening “smiling and hugging people” — including Rachael Maskell, the MP who only hours earlier had called for him to resign.
He also made a speech, explaining once again how furious he was with Peter Mandelson, who is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police over allegations of misconduct in public office amid claims he passed on market-sensitive government information to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Mandelson denies acting with criminal intent or for financial gain.
The revelations sent shockwaves through Westminster, and on Wednesday Starmer admitted that he knew Mandelson’s friendship with Epstein had continued after his child sex conviction yet still appointed him as the UK’s ambassador to Washington. Mandelson has since resigned from the Labour Party and is being stripped of his peerage.
Starmer and Mandelson in Washington last February
CARL COURT
The PM said: “The last couple of days have been really tough. I’m as angry and frustrated as you are because all of us came into politics to make a difference to people’s lives.
“We’ve all got a shared endeavour, which is to prove that politics is a force for good and can make a difference — and that really matters.
“But not everybody acts in that way. And I am beyond angry that Peter Mandelson did not come into politics with that same spirit that we have.
“We must not lose what brought us here, which is the politics of service and making a difference. Because that behaviour [of Mandelson] challenges what we stand for and that is corrosive and a challenge. We must rise to that challenge”.
For many in the room, the words were of little comfort.
“After the catalogue of U-turns and poor judgment, I am not sure rice and chilli and a glass of wine is going to keep him as PM,” said one. “Many of us have lost trust in him and No 10. They have managed to trash the reputation of the Labour government in 18 months.”
The following day, donors met Starmer at the country retreat to deliver a “robust message”. One source said he would have been left with the impression they had “lost faith” in him.
Many in the cabinet think it’s a matter of time before Starmer is toppled
SUNDAY TIMES PHOTOGRAPHER RICHARD POHLE
Meanwhile, a growing number of MPs and peers, including Baroness Harman, the former Labour deputy leader, are publicly warning the prime minister the scandal will “finish” him off unless he changes course with a reset of his No 10 team. They want him to sack Morgan McSweeney, his chief of staff, who was instrumental in the decision to appoint Mandelson.
Privately, cabinet ministers are equally scathing. One described the crisis as “terminal”. Another said: “Most of the cabinet think it’s done and it’s a question of when, not if, the prime minister is toppled.”
A third added: “The royal family are much more ruthless than the Labour Party. If they had been in charge they would have seen the existential threat to them and acted [as they did with Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor].”
Starmer, the most unpopular prime minister in history, is facing the prospect of an electoral meltdown in May and he as lost control of backbenchers who torpedoed his economic and legislative agenda. Some are speculating that he could throw in the towel and be replaced by an interim prime minister. They likened his mood to May 2021 when Labour lost the Hartlepool by-election and he told aides he was going to quit.
Worried MPs say he is not sleeping and they have recently noticed him online on his phone in the early hours. Amid claims his anger at Mandelson is turning inwards, allies say he is a man of “moral probity” and is “beating himself” up for the mess he finds himself in. “What has he got left on his side?” asked one concerned MP. “He must know he is a dead man walking.”
Morgan McSweeney outside the Lady Mayor’s Banquet in December
CHRIS J RATCLIFFE
McSweeney, often described as Mandelson’s protégé, is said to be “even more shaken” than Starmer by events. A government insider said that even though he is a “tough character” he is “absolutely knackered” and his “mood is very low”.
Since Starmer entered Downing Street, McSweeney has become a lightning conductor for dissent within the party and has been urged by friends to leave No 10 “on his own terms”.
It is understood he was planning to leave his role in September and be replaced by Darren Jones before the PM persuaded him to stay.
Westminster is now awash with rumours that McSweeney is on his way out — a suggestion No 10 claims is “not right”.
One source suggested the chief of staff had already agreed to leave next month after the Gorton & Denton by-election, while others say his departure could be imminent.
• Mandelson has inadvertently exposed frivolous system of government
“McSweeney will leave No 10 when it is the best time for Keir for him to go,” said one ally. “He will be sitting in Scotland feeling terrible that he has let his boss down but you do not sack your most effective bodyguard at a time like this.” Another countered that they expected McSweeney to be “thrown to the wolves” like a “sacrificial lamb” in the coming days in the “hope the government can survive another week”.
There is also speculation that Sir Chris Wormald, the cabinet secretary, will soon leave No 10 as part of a wider shake-up.
Wormald, who was responsible for the vetting process for Mandelson’s appointment, has been the subject of several negative media briefings from senior figures in government who have accused him of a lack of dynamism and excess caution.
On Saturday, Gordon Brown, the former prime minister, warned that Starmer’s situation was “serious” and he had been “too slow to do the right things” to clean up politics. He described him as a “man of integrity” who made the “wrong decision” and urged MPs to stick with him.
Soon after, the Metropolitan Police confirmed that they had concluded their search of Mandelson’s addresses in Wiltshire and north London as part of their investigation. Mandelson’s position is understood to be that he has not acted in any way criminally and that he was not motivated by financial gain.
He has previously expressed his regret for his continued association with Epstein and apologised “unequivocally to the women and the girls who suffered”.
With Starmer at the lowest point of his premiership, his rivals are circling and chatter about a potential leadership challenge has got louder. Downing Street fears it has lost control as it is forced to release hundreds of thousands of emails, messages and files involving communications between senior ministers and Mandelson.
There are discussions among key party figures about how to remove the PM. Options being considered include members of the cabinet going to Starmer to tell him his time is up, or a letter signed by enough Labour MPs to make it clear he no longer has their confidence.
A frontbencher is also said to be on the brink of resigning, which could trigger a stalking horse, or even a genuine, challenge.
The frontrunners include Angela Rayner, who is yet to settle her tax affairs after she was forced to resign as deputy prime minister in September for underpaying stamp duty on her £800,000 flat in Hove, and Wes Streeting, the health secretary.
Other potential contenders include Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, and Al Carns, the ex special forces colonel and junior defence minister. The dark horse is John Healey, the defence secretary, who is being spoken of enthusiastically by some MPs and ministers as a possible caretaker leader.
Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, has also “not given up hope” of returning to Westminster. Allies believe the Labour Party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) would not block him again as they did after he requested permission last month to stand in the Gorton & Denton by-election.
However, there is still a question over whether any of these candidates could unite the party and transform its electoral fortunes — and some MPs believe the status quo will limp on until at least the local elections in May and possibly beyond.
With Starmer’s premiership apparently in its death throes, Labour has been plunged into civil war as rivals openly brief against one another. Rayner’s allies have been accused of trying to weaponise Streeting’s relationship with Mandelson. The health secretary’s allies have accused her team of “exploiting” the Epstein scandal for her own personal gain — a move they describe as “sordid”.
Rayner is understood to be frustrated that Starmer did not take heed of her warnings not to appoint Mandelson because of his links to Epstein and relayed the story last week in an expletive laden rant. “I f***ing told him,” she said.
An undated photograph of Epstein and Mandelson from the latest Epstein files
A supporter of Streeting said he was “bullish” about the prospect of personal messages between him and Mandelson being disclosed. “There’s only a handful — including when Wes asked for advice ahead of a call with his US counterpart, and Mandelson passed him onto the deputy ambassador. His relationship with Mandelson is wildly overstated. They only met and spoke three to four times a year.”
Pat McFadden, the notoriously deadpan work and pensions secretary, will have his work cut out on Sunday as he is sent out on the airwaves to defend the prime minister. He follows Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Cabinet Office minister, who was parachuted in to lead Wednesday’s debate on the release of key documents relating to the vetting process surrounding Mandelson’s appointment, after his colleague Darren Jones phoned in sick.
McFadden will want to talk about the work the government is doing to clean up politics. However, that is unlikely to do much to answer the critics of the prime minister, who is already braced for an upset in the by-election in two weeks’ time — the next perilous moment for his premiership.
• Angela Rayner ‘told Keir Starmer not to appoint Mandelson’
Luke Tryl, director of the think tank More in Common UK, said: “Even before the events of the past week the Gorton & Denton by-election looked to be an uphill struggle for the Labour Party and their anaemic poll ratings, but the perfect storm of local fury over the blocking of Andy Burnham contrasted with the Peter Mandelson scandal, which has had high cut-through in focus groups, and questions about the PM’s judgment have only bolstered the turn away from the traditional mainstream to Reform and the Greens.”
Starmer has little to smile about this weekend as he and his advisers hunker down in Downing Street for their latest crisis talks. For now they are saying, in public at least, that he will fight on.
But many have already counted him out.