This week we will mostly be concerning ourselves with kicking, Scotland, Wales and Germany…

The numbers don’t lie

One of the more eyebrow-raising numbers from the weekend past was the number 78. Not, as you might think, the England value in the new ‘expected points’ metric created by some boffin or other, but rather the number of times boot was applied to ball in Thursday’s Six Nations opener between Ireland and France.

Eyebrow-raising because, it simply didn’t feel like the sort of game that had a kick per minute – or rather, two per minute of ball-in-play time.

Another stat from the weekend’s action: six of the 18 tries scored came from kicks within at least two phases of the try being scored. Meanwhile, the BBC ran a long sequence before the Italy-Scotland clash on the Scotland wingers, explaining, using percentages, how the wingers picked were the ones statistically more likely to regain contestable kicks. George Ford kicked a heck of a lot for a game that was so palpably one-sided, yet those in the know credited his game management with the English dominance. And rightly so.

The point of all this? Well, was anybody actually bored by the weekend’s action? Italy v Scotland was hardly a classic, but there was a grim fascination about seeing which team would master the weather, just as there was a morbid curiosity to see exactly how many England would stick on Wales. There was no shortage of atmosphere at either, while anybody who claims not to have enjoyed the France-Ireland game is either lying or Irish.

Yet the coming weekend will see the start of the Super Rugby Pacific season, replete with kick-dumbing law trials and tweaks to ‘inspire’ the players to run the ball more, because apparently that’s what we all want and need.

Which is total tripe. The kicking game is integral to rugby. Used well and policed well, it makes for just as exciting a spectacle as a game in which everybody runs from everywhere; used very well it can, as this weekend past showed, account for a significant portion of tries scored. The numbers don’t lie and we need to stop rejecting it as not audience-friendly and remember how game-friendly it is.

The hottest seat in town

He sat in his seat for a long time after the final whistle did Gregor Townsend, a fairly distant and contemplative stare on his face. The warnings about Italy’s resurgence had been sounding all week and it is hardly as if Scotland simply hadn’t heeded them. Italy simply started better and mastered the conditions. But on top of November’s disappointments, this felt like a mortal blow to Townsend’s tenure.

Ex-Scotland star sets Gregor Townsend ultimatum as sacking would become a ‘necessity’

Coaching Scotland can be a thankless task, seen from the outside. It’s not quite as simple as ‘beat England and all is good’ anymore, the constant run of eyebrow-raising results over the years and occasional flashes of dominant brilliance has seen to that. Scotland expects quickly when there is a sign of life. It’s the hope that kills you.

Yet rugby in Scotland is still very much the second sport. There are only two professional teams and resources are constantly stretched. It’s been a long, long road back from the lean years and although there are always mutterings about ‘kilted Kiwis’ and ‘van der Scotsmens’, that Scotland have remained as competitive as they have done for so long is a laudable achievement. Townsend will have been in the job for nine years in June and he’s played a big role in that.

This week might actually be as simple as ‘beat England and all is good’ however. The public impatience has grown, not least with the November collapses. Defeat against the auld enemy means that Scotland are likely to face a fifth-place showdown with Wales unless they can spring a surprise on France or break their Ireland jinx.

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Will Townsend even stay that long if England conquer Murrayfield? Speculation is rife that his ties to Newcastle are deeper than officially let on and the noise has only grown since Alan Dickens’ departure was announced. Townsend angrily called it an attempt by the media to destabilise his team but the questions are entirely justifiable and the public is unimpressed. The coaching seat in Edinburgh will be the hottest around this weekend.

The relegation debate quashed before it begins

That Wales were in crisis mode was already very evident even when Warren Gatland delivered his ‘if only I had known’ soundbite almost three years ago. How deep the crisis ran nobody knew then; if we’re honest, still nobody knows how deep and how long it might go.

Certainly, those pro-Georgia promotion fellows – and there are many, including this correspondent – have new material to use in the case for the relegation. Alas, of course, the Nations Cup’s exclusivity format puts paid both to any chance of that happening and of any chance of the current Georgia team having a stab at any of the establishment to at least beef up their case further, or of demonstrating to the world that they have an actual functioning union and professional structure.

In the meantime, Welsh fans, and if we’re honest, all traditionalists, will be hoping that Wales find a way out. If it’s a cold reality that the current situation deserves relegation, it’s also still unimaginable to consider top-tier tournaments without a competitive Welsh team.

The death by a thousand cuts: How indiscipline is costing Wales their identity

Perhaps there is a way out. For 40 minutes at least, the Welsh U20 were superb against their English counterparts, racking up a 16-0 half-time lead. That it was squandered says quite a lot about the English response in the second half, but talent remains in the principality. How to nurture it…

Germany comes in from the cold

The biggest result of the weekend? Germany’s 30-24 win over Romania. It’s been a rough road back for the Germans from the ‘high’ of narrowly missing out on 2019 World Cup qualification in the repechage tournament.

But a new-look side, featuring a number of players with remarkably English-sounding names but which almost all have actual German heritage, clung on doggedly in the mud against the Romanians for a statement victory.

Just reward, too, for coach Mike Poppmeier, who was captain of that repechage team in 2018 and who has weathered all manner of unpleasant internal politics since then to be one of the coaching trio to lead the team back into the reckoning.

Next up, Portugal, who will relish the current miserable German winter conditions – as this is written I am reliably informed it is six days since the sun was last seen in Berlin – not one bit.

Worth a watch this Saturday lunchtime if you fancy something a little different before Ireland set about redeeming themselves against Italy.

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