The study was conceptualized by C.M.E., who also wrote the first draft of the paper. C.M.E., S.F.H., and S.R.C. jointly led revision of the manuscript. D.A.D. coordinated data compilation in conjunction with J.L.D. and A.M.G. S.R.C. designed and led the statistical analysis. G.L., W.J.S., E.F.G., and S.F.H. provided data on heat stress. Large-scale coral bleaching and mortality datasets were provided by A.H.B., N.C., C.S.C., S.D.D., J.G., M.G.R., M.G., H.B.H., G.H., O.H.G., A.S.H., M.O.H., T.P.H., M.E.J., J.T.K., T.K., J.M., A.I.M.-C., D.O.O., M.S.P., A.R.-S., C.L.R., A.S., J.S., A.T., G.T., T.S.V., C.S.W., and S.W. Great Barrier Reef aerial bleaching surveys were undertaken by T.P.H. and J.T.K. All other authors contributed to data collection and multiple drafts of the manuscript.