Rachel Ellehuus, Director-General of defence think-tank RUSI told me she sees a rift opening up across the continent.
One the one hand, you have the Nordic and Baltic nations that are geographically close to Russia, and also Germany and the Netherlands, which are all big defence spenders, she says, whereas in southern Europe, there’s Spain, for example, that is absolutely unapologetic about refusing to increase defence budgets to the levels demanded by Donald Trump.
France and Britain are both verbally committed to boosting defence spending, says Ellehuus, but are still looking for a “political band aid” to help them explain to voters the trade-offs that will involve – higher taxes, less welfare or more borrowing.
“Europeans need to get to work yesterday and to focus,” she says. “They have 5-10 years to stand on their own two feet in terms of conventional defence capabilities.”
Last week, U.S. Undersecretary of Defence Elbridge Colby couldn’t have been more stark in his messaging at a meeting of Nato defence ministers he attended in Brussels: Europe was no longer a US priority, the Indo-Pacific was.
“Under President Trump’s leadership, we are reprioritising the defence of our homeland and the protection of our interests in our Hemisphere,” he said.
While he emphasised that the US remained committed to Nato’s mutual defence clause, where an attack against one member is viewed as an attack against all, Colby insisted the US would be reducing its capabilities in Europe, becoming “a more limited and focused” presence.
Europe had to become a partner, rather than a dependent, he said, calling for a new “Nato 3.0”. The old world order with the West at its core, has faded but the MSC this weekend made clear that what comes next for Europe and the US is still very much up in the air.
Marco Rubio called for a new century of western civilisation, Elbridge Colby wants a re-vamped Nato, while the UK’s prime minister appealed in Munich for the western alliance to be re-made.