Jannik Sinner has a chance to make up some ground on Carlos Alcaraz in the ATP Rankings at the Indian Wells Open while Novak Djokovic is also in a good position in terms of the points he has to defend.

The Indian Wells tournament, which runs from March 4 to 15 on the hard courts in California, is the first ATP Masters 1000 event on the calendar and also the first leg of the Sunshine Double as it is followed by the Miami Open.

With the ATP Rankings using a rolling 52-week, cumulative system, players have to defend points from their 18 best tournaments and they usually defend points they earned from the corresponding period 12 months ago.

Example: A player who earned 200 points at the 2025 Indian Wells Open will drop that tally at the start of the 2026 event and will then earn points for every win. However, in some cases, they are not defending points from the exact same event 12 months ago, but instead their 18th-best event.

Let’s take a look at the points the top stars will drop at the 2026 edition:

Carlos Alcaraz – 400

World No 1 Alcaraz – who is yet to lose a match so far in 2026 – reached the semi-final last year before he was beaten in three sets by Jack Draper, meaning he will drop 400 points at the start of the tournament.

Of course, the seven-time Grand Slam winner is assured of remaining top of the ATP Rankings after the tournament even if he loses early in Indian Wells as he has a 3,150-point lead over second-placed Jannik Sinner.

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Jannik Sinner – 0

While Sinner won’t be able to overtake Alcaraz, he will get an opportunity to claw some points back as he didn’t feature in Indian Wells a year ago due to his three-month ban following his failed drug tests in March 2024.

A title run coupled with an early exit by his Spanish rival could result in Alcaraz’s lead being reduced to under 2,000 points.

Novak Djokovic – 10

The tennis great was seeded sixth at the ATP 1000 tournament last and had a bye into the second round, but he failed to win a match as he was beaten in three sets by Botic van de Zandschulp.

The 24-time Grand Slam winner is currently third in the rankings – well adrift of Sinner and well clear of fourth – and he could increase the gap to Alexander Zverev with a deep run.

Alexander Zverev – 50

The German was the top seed at the 2025 edition after Sinner withdrew due to his ban, but he also lost in the second round as he was stunned by Tallon Griekspoor.

However, Zverev is not defending those 10 points as he is defending points from his 18th-best tournament and in this case he will drop 50 points at the start of the event.

Lorenzo Musetti – 50

The Italian was touch-and-go to compete at Indian Wells as he is still recovering from the leg injury he sustained at the Australian Open.

Musetti lost in the third round 12 months ago, but a title run could see him rise up to as high as third in the rankings.

Alex de Minaur – 100

The Australian reached the fourth round last year.

Taylor Fritz – 100

Fritz, who won the title in 2022, can also make up some ground on those ahead of him in the rankings with a run to the quarter-final, semi-final or final.

Ben Shelton – 200

The American was seeded 11th last year and reached the quarter-final before losing against Draper.

Jack Draper – 1,000

The British No 1 has slumped to No 15 in the official rankings following an injury-ravaged second half of the 2025 season, but he is back in action and looking to make his way back up the rankings.

Draper, who currently has 2,460 ranking points, will face a big drop if he fails to reach the latter stages of the 2026 tournament.

Holger Rune – 650

The Dane finished runner-up last year, but he won’t return to defend his points in 2026 as he is currently recovering from an Achilles injury.

Rune is currently No 17 in the rankings with 2,290 points and he will be left with 1,640 points after the tournament, which will result in him dropping out of the top 20.