Polanski says many ex-Labour voters will never return to Starmer’s party, and Greens best party to defeat Reform
Zack Polanksi, the Green party leader, has claimed that the Gorton and Denton result shows that the Labour party has lost some of its old voters for good and that voting Green is now the way to defeat Reform. In a statement he said:
double quotation markThis used to be one of Labour’s safest seats. In this by-election almost half of their 2024 voters abandoned them and many switched to voting Green, meaning they finished 3rd. The Green party saw a record-breaking swing in our direction and more than tripled our vote.
Labour fought a shameful, dirty campaign – spreading lies about Green policies and even faking a tactical voting website. They knew they couldn’t win, but they risked splitting the vote and letting Reform in.
People everywhere will now know that voting Green is the way to defeat Reform. Many ex-Labour voters told our canvassers that they will never go back to a party that supports genocide, fuels racism, and has failed to deliver on its promise to improve life for people across the country.
Zack Polanski posing for a selfie with the new Green party MP for Gorton and Denton, Hannah Spencer. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The GuardianShare
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Labour MP says result ‘catastrophic’ and Starmer should revert to Corbynite agenda that won him party leadership
The Labour MP Karl Turner has described the Gorton and Denton byelection result as “catastrophic” for his party in an interview on the Today programme. Turner is not a regular leftwing critic of the party’s leadership, like Richard Burgon (see 7.03am), but he has recently become very outspoken because he is leading the fight against the plan to restrict jury trials.
Here are some extracts from his interview.
double quotation markIt’s catastrophic isn’t it? That’s the truth. It couldn’t be any worse. Having the greens in Manchester is the worst result we could have expected or we wanted.
He said Labour would be wrong to write this off as a standard, mid-term defeat for a governing party.
He said that he agreed with the Unison leader Andrea Egan’s argument about Labour needing to be more leftwing. (See 6.50am.) Asked about her comments, he said:
double quotation markThe reality is we can’t possibly out-rightwing Reform on immigration and we can’t out-leftwing the Greens on progressive policy. That’s our problem.
If we started to be Labour, we might sort of have a bit of a chance.
Asked what that would look like, he replied:
double quotation markIt looks like socialism to me … that’s what I think it looks like. I’ll tell you what it isn’t; it’s not doing away with juries in criminal proceedings. That’s the type of stuff we’re doing without rolling the pitch that takes Labour MPs by surprise, puts us in a position where we have to vote against our own government without any discussion. That’s the stuff that’s been happening. It’s got to stop.
He said Starmer needed to “get a grip”. He did not call for a new leader. He said, if you look at alternative candidates, “there’s a problem with everybody”.
But he said that Starmer should pursue leftwing policies, like a wealth tax. When it was put to him that voters rejected these ideas when Jeremy Corbyn was leader, Turner said that was because Corbyn was leader. When it was put to him that he seemed to be calling for “Corbyn’s policy, but Starmer in charge”, Turner replied:
double quotation markThat’s what we were promised. That is what [Morgan McSweeney] set Stamer up to be. He was going to be the Jeremy Corbyn, but the electable version; 25 minutes after he was got elected as leader. Labour MPs are cheesed off not just because of what’s happened in the last 18 months of a Labour government, [but] because of the last four years.
Updated at 02.47 EST
Here is a Guardian graphic showing how the vote share changed in the byelection.
Gorton and Denton byelection result, compared to 2024 resultGorton and Denton byelection result, compared to 2024 resultShareLabour has ‘fallen into electoral Valley of Death’ – what polling experts are saying about Gorton and Denton result
Here are three elections specialists on the significance of the Gorton and Denton result.
Prof John Curtice, the BBC’s elections expert, says in a BBC article that the result is not just a reflection on Labour’s performance since 2024.
double quotation markYet it would be a mistake to believe the result in Gorton and Denton simply reflects disappointment with the leadership he and his government have provided since the 2024 election.
Rather the by-election confirmed the message of the 2024 election that two of the key foundations of Labour’s traditional electoral coalition have crumbled away.
Labour could once be assured in Gorton and Denton of the support of, first, less well-off working class voters and, second, those from a minority background, both of which are especially numerous in the constituency and both of which were until recently bastions of support for Labour across the country as a whole.
However, the last remnants of Labour’s relative strength among working class voters across Britain disappeared at the 2019 general election – and they failed to return in 2024. Now it is Reform that is especially successful at appealing to such voters.
Rob Ford, a politics professor who lives in the constituency next door to Gorton and Denton, says the result suggests Labour has fallen into an “electoral Valley of Death”.
double quotation markGorton and Denton first thoughts – incredible result for Greens who won long battle to be best placed anti-Reform candidate – helped by being the obvious anti-Labour candidate for disappointed progressives. As I noted in the Observer last month, a Revolt on the Left is growing
double quotation markAs I noted in my Swingometer profile of the seat this result – Green win over Reform with Lab 3rd – is the nightmare scenario for the incumbent govt. They have fallen into the electoral Valley of Death. Rejected in the centre. Rejected on the right. And now rejected on the left
double quotation markThis May’s local & devolved elecs – which already looked set to be grim for Labour – may become apocalyptic if the Greens surge in the wake of this victory. So many Labour seats in Green friendly territory are up – all seats in inner London & many metros
double quotation markLabour risk being wiped out by Reform in the ‘red wall’ type metros – Barnsley, Calderdale, Wakefield, Sunderlands etc – & being wiped out by the Greens in what we may now need to start calling the ‘Green wall’ – diverse, student & grad heavy Lab areas where Reform are no threat
Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president, says in a post on his Substack blog that Labour is heading for “dreadful trouble” in the local elections.
double quotation markFor Labour the result is plainly catastrophic. Indeed, its 25.3 point drop since 2024 understates the scale of its disaster. In 2019 it won 67.2 per cent, then lost 16.5 percentage points in 2024, mainly due to the intervention of the Workers Party. In as far as Muslim voters have deserted Labour, much of the desertion had already happened two years ago. What happened last night cannot be fully explained by Gaza.
Nor does a fall in turnout explain Labour’s plight. This has often been cited in the past to argue that supporters stay at home in the by-election but return to the fold for the following general election. This time, turnout was almost the same as in 2024. To be sure, some former Labour voters will have stayed at home, while Reform and the Greens picked up some new voters. But the lion’s share of Labour’s 9,000 lost votes did not stay away: they switched to other parties.
There is quite separate evidence of the depth of the hole in which Labour now finds itself. Week after week by-elections are held for local councils. More than 200 have been held since last May. Greg Cook, Labour’s former head of political strategy, and Mark Pack, a Lib Dem peer and meticulous number cruncher, tell the same story. Labour has failed to gain a single seat, and lost three-quarters of the seats it was defending.
If the local elections this May show anything like this pattern of gains and losses, Labour will be in even more dreadful trouble.
ShareLabour MP Richard Burgon says ‘Starmer and his clique’ to blame for Labour’s defeat
Richard Burgon, who is secretary of the Socialist Campaign group in parliament, which represents leftwing Labour MPs, has blamed “Keir Starmer and his clique” for Labour’s defeat and said the party must respond by shifting left.
In a statement, he said:
double quotation markBlame for Labour’s defeat lies squarely with Keir Starmer and his clique.
They put factional interests over having the candidate best placed to win, Andy Burnham.
If Labour is to be the “Stop Reform” party, then the leadership must stop treating progressive voters with contempt – and start appealing to them.
That means a return to real Labour values – through policies like a Wealth Tax, public ownership of energy and water, and an ethical foreign policy that are all popular with the public.
And it means ditching the approach of trying to ape Reform and kicking the left, that has alienated so many people who have voted Labour previously.
It is worth pointing out that some of Starmer’s “clique” have already gone; Morgan McSweeney left his post as the PM’s chief of staff at No 10 earlier this month, and the leadership team in No 10 is being reconstituted.
ShareGreens dismiss Farage’s response to Spencer’s win as Trump-style attempt to undermine democratic result
The Green party has described Nigel Farage’s claim that it won because of “sectarian voting and cheating” (see 5.09am) as a Trump-style attempt to undermine the result of a democratic election.
A Green spokesperson said:
double quotation markThis is an attempt to undermine the democratic result and is straight out of the Trump playbook.
We’ve just won a historic byelection by a comfortable margin.
We’ve shown the country that Greens can beat Reform, despite their big business donations.
ShareLabour ‘failing on every count’ under Starmer, says Unison leader Andrea Egan in call for party to shift left
Labour’s defeat in Gorton and Denton is likely to reignite calls for Keir Starmer to be replaced as leader. Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, appeared to anticipate this in comments earlier this morning, when she insisted that Starmer was “the person for the job”. (See 5.31pm.)
But this morning Andrea Egan, the relatively new leftwing general secretary of Unison, one of the two biggest unions backing Labour, said the party is “failing on every count” under Starmer. In a statement she said:
double quotation markThe Greens won for a simple reason. Many traditional Labour supporters, in Manchester and across the country, want to see progressive values robustly defended against the far-right, not gleefully abandoned.
A Labour government should be standing up for workers, defending migrants and refugees, and taking the fight to Nigel Farage rather than letting him set the agenda.
Under Keir Starmer the party is failing on every count, leaving the Greens to fill the vacuum.
Cosying up to the rich and powerful, and protecting their interests whilst attacking ordinary working people and the left has singularly failed. The prime minister is now reaping the electoral consequences of that strategy.
If the government wants to survive, it urgently needs to stand up for workers and defend our fundamental values.
ShareLabour had 13th highest fall in support in byelection, says John Curtice, and Tories had worst ever byelection result
Prof Sir John Curtice, the BBC’s elections expert, says this is the first byelection in the modern era when neither Labour nor the Conservative party were in the top two (apart from one where Labour disowned their candidate). Here is an extract from his take for the BBC.
double quotation markRather than winning narrowly, the [Green party] won 40.7%, enough to put them as much as 12 points ahead of second placed Reform. It represented as much as a 27.5 point increase on the party’s share in 2024.
Labour, who had not hitherto lost an election in the area since 1931, fell into third place. The party’s 25.4% of the vote represented a near halving of their 50.8% of the vote in 2024 and the 13th biggest ever fall in the party’s support in a byelection.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives lost their deposit with just 1.9% of the vote, their worst ever byelection result.
Apart from the exceptional circumstances of the Rochdale by-election in 2024, when Labour disowned their candidate, leaving George Galloway to defeat a second-placed independent candidate, it is the first time that neither Labour nor the Conservatives have been one of the top two parties in a by-election contest.
Share Hannah Spencer celebrating with her supporters at the Niamey Radical Arts Centre in Manchester. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The GuardianShare
Updated at 01.37 EST
Losing Reform UK candidate Matt Goodwin claims result evidence of ‘dangerous Muslim sectarianism’ in UK
Matt Goodwin, the Reform UK candidate who was defeated, has issued a statement claiming that the byelection result was evidence of “dangerous Muslim sectarianism”. He said:
double quotation markWe are losing our country. A dangerous Muslim sectarianism has emerged. We have only one general election left to save Britain. Vote Reform every chance you get. I will continue the fight. I will always fight for you. I will stand at the next general election. Matt.
It is difficult to know what this means beyond the fact that there are a large number of Muslims in Gorton and Denton and that they chose not to vote for Reform UK.
Speaking at the count, Goodwin explicitly accused the Green party of engaging in sectarian politics. He said:
double quotation markWe’ve not engaged in sectarian politics like the Greens. We’ve communicated in English on national language. We’ve not communicated in Urdu or Punjabi. We’ve actually talked about the issues that are facing local people. We didn’t prioritise Gaza.
Hannah Spencer, the new Green party MP for Gorton and Denton, has said that it was Reform UK that was engaging in divisive politics. (See 4.50am.) Reform puts opposition to immigrants at the heart of its platform.
Matt Goodwin listening to Hannah Spencer deliver her victory speech. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The GuardianSharePolanski says many ex-Labour voters will never return to Starmer’s party, and Greens best party to defeat Reform
Zack Polanksi, the Green party leader, has claimed that the Gorton and Denton result shows that the Labour party has lost some of its old voters for good and that voting Green is now the way to defeat Reform. In a statement he said:
double quotation markThis used to be one of Labour’s safest seats. In this by-election almost half of their 2024 voters abandoned them and many switched to voting Green, meaning they finished 3rd. The Green party saw a record-breaking swing in our direction and more than tripled our vote.
Labour fought a shameful, dirty campaign – spreading lies about Green policies and even faking a tactical voting website. They knew they couldn’t win, but they risked splitting the vote and letting Reform in.
People everywhere will now know that voting Green is the way to defeat Reform. Many ex-Labour voters told our canvassers that they will never go back to a party that supports genocide, fuels racism, and has failed to deliver on its promise to improve life for people across the country.
Zack Polanski posing for a selfie with the new Green party MP for Gorton and Denton, Hannah Spencer. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The GuardianShareFull results in Gorton and Denton byelection
Andrew Sparrow
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Adam Fulton.
So, in the end, it wasn’t even close.
Here are the detailed results from the Press Association.
double quotation markHannah Spencer (Green) 14,980 (40.69%, +27.53%)
Matt Goodwin (Reform) 10,578 (28.73%, +14.67%)
Angeliki Stogia (Lab) 9,364 (25.44%, -25.32%)
Charlotte Cadden (C) 706 (1.92%, -5.98%)
Jackie Pearcey (LD) 653 (1.77%, -2.05%)
Sir Oink A-Lot (Loony) 159 (0.43%)
Nick Buckley (Advance UK) 154 (0.42%)
Joseph O’Meachair (Rejoin) 98 (0.27%)
Dan Clarke (Libertarian) 47 (0.13%)
Sebastian Moore (Soc Dem) 46 (0.12%)
Hugo Wils (Comm Lge) 29 (0.08%)
Green maj 4,402 (11.96%)
26.43% swing Lab to Green
Electorate 77,501; Turnout 36,814 (47.50%, +0.70%)
2024: Lab maj 13,413 (36.69%) – Turnout 36,560 (46.80%)
Gwynne (Lab) 18,555 (50.75%); Moffitt (Reform) 5,142 (14.06%);
Gardner (Green) 4,810 (13.16%); Burney (WPB) 3,766 (10.30%); Welsh
(C) 2,888 (7.90%); Reid (LD) 1,399 (3.83%)
ShareLabour says result ‘clearly disappointing’
Labour party chairperson Anna Turley has called the Gorton and Denton result “clearly disappointing”.
Byelections were normally difficult for the party of government and this election was no different, she said.
“We have had thousands of conversations over the last few weeks and we know the majority of voters here did not want the poisonous politics of Nigel Farage and Reform.
“We will continue to deliver a programme for government that tackles the cost of living crisis families are facing, creates opportunities for young people and invests in our public services,” Turley said, quoted by PA Media.
double quotation markThe politics of anger and easy answers offered by the Greens and Reform won’t deliver this.
We will move forwards with a relentless focus on delivering the renewal communities across Britain want to see.
Updated at 00.50 EST