A big spike in energy prices in early Asia reflects the on-the-ground reality that the threat to the world’s oil supply is only increasing. Warren Patterson discusses the latest developments here. Every day the conflict continues, more crude is shut-in and the higher energy prices will go. So far, US President Donald Trump is pitching that oil above $100/bl is a small price to pay for regime change in the Middle East. In early Europe, oil has come off its highs on a Financial Times report that the G7 will be meeting later today to discuss the co-ordinated release of energy reserves. This would be implemented through the International Energy Administration (IEA), a grouping of 32 countries.
Back in 2022, the IEA released 62 and then 120 million barrels at the start of March and April, respectively, to address the spike caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The FT is reporting that the US is pushing for a huge 300-400m barrel release, marking a whopping 25-30% of IEA stocks. Such a huge release might bring some temporary calm to energy markets and knock the dollar off its highs. But until there are clear signs of either the US and Israel being able to prevent further economic chaos in the Middle East, or some kind of ceasefire emerging, we cannot see the dollar staying offered for long.
In terms of financial markets, the higher oil prices go, the more the short end of interest rate curves are re-priced higher and the greater pressure builds at the long end of the bond market. A much bigger unwind remains the risk for global equity markets as higher energy prices dampen growth prospects, while higher longer-dated interest rates sap the net present value earnings of the growth stocks. Short dollar positioning also means that in extreme bouts of deleveraging – like what we saw last Tuesday and could perhaps see again today – the dollar is again the beneficiary.
The US economic calendar will be of secondary consequence this week, even though January’s US jobs report did come in soft. The data focus this week will probably be on US inflation, where we have the February CPI data on Wednesday and the core PCE deflator on Friday. The latter could come in on the hot side, with the core PCE deflator rising to 3.1% year-on-year, as companies push through annual price changes in January. This can add to the view that the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts.
DXY has retested the 99.65/70 highs in Asia and, barring some clear signs of de-escalation, looks likely to challenge the range of highs near 100.25/35 this week.
Chris Turner