The Triple Crown is hard earned.
The impression of Scottish rugby has changed radically since their defeat to Italy in Rome five weeks ago – on Saturday they will come storming into the Aviva Stadium on with a Six Nations title in their sights.
An equally sharp shift in perceptions applies to an England side that hammered Wales in round one before being rearranged by Steve Borthwick and losing to Scotland, Ireland and Italy.
Worlds apart.
Suffice to say, it has been an unforgettably unpredictable championship.
The result from the Aviva will colour how Ireland measure progress. It is already a successful campaign for Scotland after beating England and France.
Italy should win in Cardiff to complete a unique triple crown of their own, while England need to pull victory from the Parisian fire to save face.
For Ireland to win the Six Nations, English pride needs to kick into gear. Nobody imagined them losing four straight games. Maybe the senior players can take control of how they want to play, because the mass changes Borthwick made for Rome backfired.
It is France’s title to lose. That makes Ireland’s game against the Scots in Dublin the most interesting on the final day.
There is not much between them, but some things never change. Darcy Graham’s comment about Ireland being “there for the taking” will be welcomed in the Irish camp.
Maybe the Scots feel like they have to say it out loud to believe it themselves. They were talking about winning the 2019 World Cup before we beat them 27-3 in the opening pool game.
Scotland have made a giant leap under Gregor Townsend. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire
“They have been on a good run of form recently, but we’ll end that on Saturday,” said Blair Kinghorn before our meeting at the 2023 World Cup.
After it finished 36-14, Peter O’Mahony enjoyed responding in kind. “They were in the press beforehand saying they were going to knock us off our winning streak and how they had figured us out … I don’t think they did tonight.”
Usually we preferred low-key media interactions, especially when Ireland were number one in the world. It’s an Irish trait. You do your work. Don’t lose the run of yourself. Especially when we were winning.
I don’t mind all the chirping around a heated rivalry. But we preferred to say less.
Still, underestimate this Scotland team at your peril.
It will be a tight contest. The Scots are guaranteed a purple patch in every game they play. The dip in concentration and physicality that used to follow a free-running period is no longer happening.
Their loss to Italy can be put down to atrocious weather. The way they tore open the English and French defences, while beating the Welsh despite a poor performance, signals a giant leap under Gregor Townsend.
What a turnaround. Townsend has gone from being heavily criticised for double-jobbing with Newcastle/Red Bull to being on the cusp of winning the Six Nations.
Graham’s confident remark is a timely reminder that they are largely the same group that failed to meet expectations throughout the 2020s. And yet, this is the best Scottish team I’ve ever seen.
Scotland’s Jack Dempsey proved against France that he has made enormous strides at number eight. Photograph: Stu Forster/Getty Images
In all areas – Jack Dempsey has made enormous strides at number eight; Pierre Schoeman can put any scrum under pressure. They will seek to match us everywhere.
Scotland play in Townsend’s own likeness, when he was a creative 10 for the Lions in 1997, and because they have Finn Russell at the helm, they can fashion a score from anywhere on the pitch.
Russell will go for Ireland early on, be it a clever offload, one of his cut-out passes in midfield or a cross-field ball for lethal wingers in Graham and Kyle Steyn.
That is half the battle against Scotland; keep the points to a minimum when their tails are up. That means slowing ruck ball by whatever means Ireland can get away with.
I thought France would be too good for them on a dry Murrayfield track. But the Scots ran riot. They cannot be allowed to settle into their game of big ball carriers inviting Russell to unleash a brilliant backline.
Ireland will have a busy day defending the gainline. It will be uncomfortable. It will require the intent displayed at Twickenham.
The last time Scotland beat Ireland over here was the last match in Croke Park. That’s 16 years ago. Before my time. Dan Parks kicked a penalty at the death. Triple Crown gone as the Scots avoided a wooden spoon.
Strength and conditioning Coach Aled Walters helps prepare Nick Timoney for Ireland’s meeting with Scotland. Photograph: Ben Brady/Inpho
Now, both teams are eyeing up the same silverware. That gives the occasion a cup final feel. The winners get a big plate to parade around the Aviva before a six-hour wait to see if England can somehow deny France.
Scotland took England and France apart. Ireland hammered England but struggled in Paris. They both squeezed past Wales.
Everyone thinks everyone else is there for the taking.
Ireland are not the same squad that started the Six Nations against France. There are plenty of new faces as Andy Farrell gave minutes to lesser-known players in almost every position, particularly at loosehead prop.
The Irish management are not prepared to go into another World Cup heavily reliant on one outhalf or a big scrummager. So much has been learned about the depth chart, with Nick Timoney and Nathan Doak looking like they belong in a green jersey whereas in other seasons the Ulster pair would have been stuck carrying tackle bags.
Others have impressed, such as Rob Baloucoune on the wing, but Timoney and Doak have added value in key areas.
I still think players such as Jack Conan and Tadhg Beirne will be needed against Scotland. And a prediction? I think Ireland will win the Triple Crown, but not the overall championship.
Follow our rugby WhatsApp channel
If you want the latest rugby news, analysis and opinion then you should follow our dedicated WhatsApp channel. From Gerry Thornley to Owen Doyle and Gordon D’Arcy, we have every angle covered.
Find the channel here.