The first Masters 1000 final of the 2026 season is closing in, with two former world No 1s set to do battle for the Indian Wells title.
World No 2 Jannik Sinner and world No 11 Daniil Medvedev will meet for the 16th time on Sunday, with a first Indian Wells title at stake for both men — and both men are assured of huge positives in the ATP Rankings as a result of their exploits.
However, action in Tennis Paradise is set to impact the ATP Rankings across the board, and here we look at the big winners and big losers from the tournament.
Tennis News
Indian Wells: Carlos Alcaraz addresses ‘target on my back’ after shock Daniil Medvedev loss
Jannik Sinner achieves a feat Carlos Alcaraz can’t match as he reaches Indian Wells final
Official ATP Rankings top 10 (pre-Indian Wells)
1) Carlos Alcaraz, 13,550
2) Jannik Sinner, 10,400
3) Novak Djokovic, 5,280
4) Alexander Zverev, 4,555
5) Lorenzo Musetti, 4,405
6) Alex de Minaur, 4,235
7) Taylor Fritz, 4,220
8) Ben Shelton, 4,010
9) Felix Auger-Aliassime, 3,950
10) Alexander Bublik, 3,405
Alcaraz was guaranteed to stay as the world No 1 regardless of results in Indian Wells, with Sinner also guaranteed to stay as the world No 2.
However, the Italian was handed the chance to close the gap to the Spaniard, with no points to defend after his suspension last year.
Below Alcaraz and Sinner, Djokovic and Zverev were set to battle for the world No 3 ranking, and fine margins elsewhere meant plenty of players could move up or down the rankings.
Live ATP Rankings (pre-Indian Wells final)
1) Carlos Alcaraz, 13,550
2) Jannik Sinner, 11,000
3) Novak Djokovic, 5,370
4) Alexander Zverev, 4,905
5) Lorenzo Musetti, 4,365
6) Alex de Minaur, 4,185
7) Taylor Fritz, 4,170
8) Felix Auger-Aliassime, 4,000 (+1)
9) Ben Shelton, 3,860 (-1)
10) Daniil Medvedev, 3,610 (+1)
Medvedev’s run to a third Indian Wells final not only cements his return to form, but he is now guaranteed to be back in the top 10, overtaking Bublik in the ATP Rankings.
Auger-Aliassime is also set to move back inside the top 8, overtaking Shelton, while Sinner has significantly surged in the world No 2 spot.
While Alcaraz was unable to improve on last year’s semi-final and remains on 13,550 points, the Italian has gained 600 points — and could gain 1,000 if he lifts the title.
The big winners
Regardless of the result of Sunday’s final, both Sinner and Medvedev are big rankings winners thanks to their impressive campaigns.
Sinner has begun to make a notable dent into Alcaraz’s lead as the world No 1, while Medvedev — who defeated Alcaraz in the semi-final — will be back in the top 10.
The Russian will be the world No 10 if he loses the final, but the world No 9 if he tastes victory — overtaking Shelton.
Further inside the top 20, Flavio Cobolli is projected to reach a new career-high of 14th in the ATP Rankings, despite falling in round three.
After a resurgence in Acapulco, Frances Tiafoe’s run to the fourth round in Indian Wells will see him return to the top 20, rising two places from world No 22 to world No 20 on Monday.
Meanwhile, rising US star Learner Tien moves close to a top-20 debut after reaching the quarter-final of the tournament, with the 20-year-old projected to leap six spots to a new career high of 21st.
Fellow quarter-finalist Cameron Norrie is projected to rise five places to 24th and regain the British No 1 ranking.
The big losers
One of the most significant losers from an ATP Rankings perspective is reigning champion Jack Draper, who fell in the quarter-final of his title defence.
Despite impressive form in just his second event back from a six-month injury layoff, Draper drops 800 ranking points and will fall twelve places from world No 14 to world No 26.
Also set to fall further down the ATP Rankings is 2025 runner-up Holger Rune, who was absent from Indian Wells due to his ongoing recovery from an Achilles issue.
With 650 runner-up points dropping from his ranking, the Dane is projected to drop ten places to world No 28 when the rankings officially update on Monday.
After recently falling outside of the top 40 for the first time since 2018, former world No 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas is also set for another notable dip.
The Greek drops 90 points after falling to Denis Shapovalov in round one, and he is projected to fall seven places to world No 50 on Monday — his lowest ranking since April 2018.
Despite an encouraging campaign, Joao Fonseca is projected to fall four places to world No 39 on Monday.
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