Jasper Philipsen may have finally taken his first victory of 2026 at Nokere Koerse on Wednesday, but the Belgian is still rating his chances of taking a second Milan-San Remo title on Saturday as ‘very small’.

“In 2024, I experienced a scenario where I could win. That is certainly possible again, if I can get over the climbs well. Otherwise, you shouldn’t go there,” Philipsen told Wielerflits.nl.

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Alpecin-Premier Tech won Milan-San Remo in 2023 and 2025 with Mathieu van der Poel, and the Dutch phenom already has three wins to his name this season – Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and two stages of Tirreno-Adriatico – so it’s not surprising that Philipsen expects his teammate to be the rider to watch alongside world champion Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG).

“Due to Tadej Pogačar’s dominance, Milan-San Remo has become a slightly different race, I think,” Philipsen said. “In the past, riders never really stood out quite so much like he and Mathieu van der Poel do right now. The fact that they can really make the difference and attack right from the Cipressa changes the dynamics of that race a bit.”

Nor should any of the capable puncheurs, he suggested. While a two-man race between Pogačar and Van der Poel is the most likely breakaway, there are “many possible scenarios”.

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While Philipsen showed his speed in Nokere Koerse and Tirreno-Adriatico, he said that following the likes of Van der Poel and Pogačar on the key late climbs of the Cipressa and Poggio in the finale of Milan-San Remo “is a whole different story”.