Energy research and consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie said the Ras Laffan attacks “fundamentally reshape [the] global LNG outlook” and the timeline for recovery was “likely significantly extended”.
“Market expectations had been for a short disruption, with a controlled restart restoring supply to pre-conflict levels by mid-2026. That outlook now appears increasingly unlikely,” said Kristy Kramer, head of LNG strategy and market development.
Nick Butler, former head of strategy at BP and former adviser to Gordon Brown, agreed, that the market was now expecting things to get worse.
“This will almost certainly cut off a level of supply of LNG to the world market. The price of gas in the world market will therefore inevitably rise, because that gas can’t be substituted very quickly at all, and maybe not for a very long time.”
However, Favas said prices were still a long way off the peaks seen in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The head of QatarEnergy told Reuters that Iran’s attacks had knocked out 17% of its LNG export capacity and the damage would take three to five years to repair.