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The Chennai Super Kings got a less than ideal prediction for the 2026 IPL season.
The biggest event of the cricket season is only days away. For the Chennai Super Kings, they will look to shake off their championship drought. The last time this storied franchise took home the IPL trophy was in 2023.
As with any sports team trying to win a title, CSK will be in a tough spot. Many teams are vying to take home the 2026 trophy. The Royal Challengers Bengaluru are seeking their second back-to-back trophy, while teams like the Delhi Capitals, Punjab Kings, and Lucknow Super Giants search for their maiden title.
However, a recent analysis predicts that CSK will not win a title in 2026. In fact, CSK is predicted to miss the playoffs for a third straight year.
Chennai Super Kings Predicted to Miss Playoffs Again
One keen cricket analyst on X has shared their predictions for the 2026 IPL season. This prediction is based on a predictive model they created. Their model predicted three of the four teams that would make the playoffs in 2025.
This analyst, Omkar Walnuj, created a metric they call Integrated Contextual Rating (ICR). This metric considers several factors when evaluating a team and its individuals. ICR considers venue, role-specific baselines, and match impact when calculating a rating.
IPL Team Predictions For the 2026 Season
Here is how Walnuj’s model predicts the 2026 IPL season will shake out.
Punjab Kings – 16 pts, 59.88 Win %
Mumbai Indians – 16 pts, 58.55 Win %
Lucknow Super Giants – 16 pts, 56.56 Win %
Royal Challengers Bengaluru – 14 pts, 55.02 Win %
Delhi Capitals – 14 pts, 53.20 Win %
Gujarat Titans – 14 pts, 52.30 Win %
Sunrisers Hyderabad – 14 pts, 51.74 Win %
Rajasthan Royals – 12 pts, 49.40 Win %
Kolkata Knight Riders – 12 pts, 46.46 Win %
Chennai Super Kings – 12 pts, 46.23 Win %
With this model, it predicts that the Punjab Kings, Mumbai Indians, Lucknow Super Giants, and Royal Challengers Bengaluru will all make the playoffs. As for CSK, it predicts they will finish in last place for the IPL 2026 season.
How Chennai Super Kings Finished IPL 2025 Season
CSK finished the 2025 season in 10th place with a 4-10 record. That was good for eight points.
Prior to the season’s launch, Walnuj’s model predicted that CSK would collect 14 points and finish in eighth place. Unfortunately, things would turn out much worse for the CSK squad.
Chennai Super Kings Early Injury Woes
The 2026 IPL season hasn’t even begun, and CSK already has injuries affecting their playing XI. Namely, Matthew Short and Nathan Ellis will not be with the team at the start of the 2026 campaign.
For starters, overseas bowler Ellis will not play at all during the 2026 season. He has a hamstring injury and is very unlikely to play a single match for CSK. Obviously, this is a big blow to CSK, who are already shy on overseas talent. Ellis was limited to one match in 2025, recording a 1/38 figure and an Economy of 9.50.
Additionally, CSK will be missing the services of Australian all-rounder Matthew Short. Short will miss several matches at the beginning of the season due to a fractured thumb. Short was one of 29 overseas players sold at the 2026 IPL auction. CSK bought his services for 1.50 crore ($221,391 Canadian Dollars).
If CSK is going to exceed the expectations set by this prediction, they will need to overcome their injuries and trust their skilled players. A bold trade or two wouldn’t hurt.
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Caleb Kerney Caleb covers the NHL for Heavy.com. He has covered professional hockey since 2022, including bylines at Dobber Prospects, The Hockey Writers, and The Hockey News. More about Caleb Kerney
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