In 2025, the Dutch driver was able to trigger an exit if he was outside the top three in the drivers’ championship by the summer break. This time he can leave if he is placed third or lower.

It is understood Verstappen does not have to inform Red Bull of his decision until October, which means that unless the team manage a miraculous turnaround between now and the summer, the 28-year-old can begin exploring his options now, safe in the knowledge that he has plenty of time to make a final call.

Because one thing is certain: there is no chance of Verstappen being in the top two by the summer break.

Red Bull are struggling for form at the beginning of this new hybrid-electric era which Verstappen hates so much. The Dutchman’s eighth place finish in Japan on Sunday marked the first time in nine years that he had finished outside the top five three races running.

Surprisingly, the team’s first-ever power unit, which was expected to be a handicap this year, does not appear to be the issue. Rather, it is their traditional strong point which has been found wanting. The car is 20kg overweight, while Verstappen was slower with the new aerodynamic package in Suzuka than team-mate Isack Hadjar was with the old one.

Ole Schack, Verstappen’s Danish front-end mechanic and the only man at the team who has been ever-present for Red Bull since their first season in 2005, is the latest to hand in his resignation. With Schack reportedly unhappy with a change in the team’s working atmosphere, it does feel that Red Bull are set for a long period of transition. Laurent Mekies had a blessed start as team principal last year but suddenly those years of stability under Christian Horner seem a long time ago. The Austrians are running things now.

Schack’s resignation comes only weeks after chief designer Craig Skinner left the team and follows a winter of upheaval on the engineering side, with Verstappen losing three senior figures ahead of the 2026 season. Controls engineer Michael Manning, lead power unit engineer David Mart and performance engineer Tom Hart all left or are leaving. Only Gianpiero Lambiase, who was promoted to head of racing last year in an effort to tie him down long-term, remains from Verstappen’s core team.

Verstappen’s options are then…

Stay at Red Bull

Unlikely, for reasons mentioned above.

Move to Mercedes

Wolff is almost certain to make renewed efforts to bring Verstappen to Brackley for 2027. The tricky thing here is which of Russell or Kimi Antonelli the Dutchman would replace. Russell told Telegraph Sport last autumn, after signing his new one-year contract extension, that he had a clause in it guaranteeing he could stay for 2027 if certain conditions were met.

“It is something I haven’t actually said publicly, but the deal is, if I’m performing [in 2026], we have a specific clause that if I reach [a certain target], we will automatically renew for 2027,” he said. “So my seat for 2027 is in my hands. So I’m not being strung along here. We’re not going to be in the same position as we were six months ago. If I perform, and I don’t want to go into details, but if I perform, then 100 per cent I’ll be staying.”

It may be that that performance clause is actually Russell winning the title. But if it is, and if Russell achieves it, it would be very tricky for Wolff to get rid of him. That would, in turn, make Verstappen’s arrival in 2027 less likely. The Dutchman would be far more reticent about joining a team with Russell in it, both professionally (he would have been at the team for five years) and personally (given their fractious history). If Antonelli wins the title, signing Verstappen for 2027 might be more straightforward. Although we might not know who is going to win by October.