Despite a poor showing in the polls, Orban’s allies deny that there is panic in the Fidesz camp.
According to Zoltan Kiszelly, the crucial factor will be whether Fidesz can persuade their supporters to get out on polling day.
“We are very optimistic. Nobody believes in the opinion polls, neither our own, nor the opposition ones,” he says.
“The majority of the voters are for Fidesz. Of pensioners, of women, of the Gypsies [Roma], of the poor, of the blue collar workers, of the rural people. The question is, will they cast their vote?”
To make sure they do, Fidesz has worked hard to update its database of supporters. Around 4.5 million of the 8.2 million-strong Hungarian electorate live in small towns and villages – the Fidesz heartlands. Since 2002, Fidesz has built a strong system of local patronage in the villages – the mayor decides who receives work, and who gets firewood in winter.
According to an investigative documentary released last week, mayors have been told how many votes each village needs to produce for Fidesz. Those interviewed in the film claim the incentives include cash payments of €120 (£104) per vote, food coupons, prescription medicines and even illegal drugs in exchange for voting for Fidesz. Those who refuse say they are denied the chance to participate in public works schemes, often the only local work available.
Cars and minibuses are organised on election day. “Companions” stand by to accompany voters, who feign illiteracy or illness, into the voting booth, to make sure they vote for Fidesz and get their money, people interviewed in the film claim. There has been no official government reaction to these allegations. One minister told the BBC that any wrongdoing should be dealt with by the appropriate authorities.
Rival parties at previous elections offered potatoes and even small sums for votes, but nothing on the scale of this election, we were told by people who have been involved in elections over the decades.
“Everyone here votes Fidesz,” said Nikki, 32, in Tiszabö, a village of 2,000 inhabitants, with a large Roma majority, in the northern Great Plain region of Hungary.
She praises the Fidesz mayor for rebuilding the roads, the kindergarten, and the sports centre. She claims votes won’t need to be bought on 12 April, as Fidesz will win “because of the war”.